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. 2020 Nov 12;10:18456. doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-75481-z

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© The Author(s) 2020

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Sensitivity of the global average temperature to changes in three parameters that are central in permafrost melting. (1) The fraction of carbon that is converted (by bacteria) from CH₄ to CO₂ before it leaves the melting permafrost. (a,b) The shaded area includes 75% of the resulting runs. (2) The slope of the rate of melting of the permafrost that results from a given temperature. (c,d) The shaded area includes 75% of the resulting runs. (3) The slope of the future relationship between additional blocking of outgoing radiation and additional water vapour in the atmosphere—for values of humidity beyond what has been observed this far. (e,f) The detail about how we change the slope is given in Supplement Fiure 10.