TABLE 1—
Changes to the Time-Dependent Reproduction Number (Rt) and the Growth Rate of Cumulative Cases in Landkreise (Counties) on Either Side of the Bavarian Border After Bavaria Introduced Financial Penalties Against Lockdown Violations: Germany, March 15–May 11, 2020
| Treatment Lag | DiD Estimate (95% CI) |
| Reproduction number | |
| Model 1 | |
| 4 d | −0.32 (−0.46, −0.18) |
| 5 d | −0.32 (−0.45, −0.18) |
| 6 d | −0.29 (−0.42, −0.16) |
| Model 2a | |
| 4 d | −0.33 (−0.47, −0.19) |
| 5 d | −0.32 (−0.45, −0.19) |
| 6 d | −0.30 (−0.42, −0.17) |
| Growth in cases | |
| Model 1 | |
| 4 d | −0.06 (−0.11, −0.02) |
| 5 d | −0.05 (−0.09, −0.00) |
| 6 d | −0.05 (−0.09, −0.01) |
| Model 2a | |
| 4 d | −0.07 (−0.11, −0.02) |
| 5 d | −0.05 (−0.09, −0.01) |
| 6 d | −0.05 (−0.09, −0.01) |
Note. CI = confidence interval; DiD = difference-in-difference. Bavaria introduced financial penalties on March 20.
a
Models with fixed effects at the Landkreis (county) level.