Table 1:
UKFSS Trial estimated and model-predicted hazard ratios, and 17-year CRC incidence and mortality per 100,000 persons screened based on per protocol analysis. All estimates are expressed with a point estimate and 95% credible or confidence intervals.
| Outcome | Source | Hazard Ratio | 17-year rate control group | 17-year rate screened group |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Incidence (All-site) | ||||
| CRC-SPIN2.0 | .56 (.51, .61) | 200 (193, 207) | 114 (105, 123) | |
| MISCAN | .61 (.57, .66) | 231 (223, 238) | 144 (134, 154) | |
| SimCRC | .66 (.61, .72) | 212 (204, 219) | 143 (122, 153) | |
| UKFSS | .65 (.59, .71) | 184 (178, 191) | 120 (112, 128) | |
| Incidence (Distal) | ||||
| CRC-SPIN2.0 | .33 (.28, .38) | 99 (94, 104) | 32 (28, 37) | |
| MISCAN | .59 (.53, .65) | 117 (112, 123) | 69 (62, 75) | |
| SimCRC | .53 (.48, .58) | 144 (138, 150) | 76 (69, 82) | |
| UKFSS | .44 (.38, .50) | 112 (107, 117) | 50 (45, 56) | |
| Incidence (Proximal) | ||||
| CRC-SPIN2.0 | .81 (.73, .90) | 101 (96, 105) | 82 (74, 89) | |
| MISCAN | .67 (.60,.74) | 113 (108, 118) | 75 (68, 82) | |
| SimCRC | .99 (.88,1.12) | 68 (64, 72) | 67 (61, 74) | |
| UKFSS | .95 (.83, 1.09) | 71 (67, 75) | 66 (60, 73) | |
| Mortality | ||||
| CRC-SPIN2.0 | .47 (.40, .54) | 70 (66, 74) | 33 (29, 38) | |
| MISCAN | .49 (.41, .57) | 54 (50, 57) | 26 (22, 30) | |
| SimCRC | .60 (.52, .69) | 73 (69, 77) | 44 (39, 49) | |
| UKFSS | .59 (.49, .70) | 56 (53, 59) | 33 (29, 38) |