Table 1.
Summary estimates of predictive accuracy
| RMSE (95% CI) |
MAPE (95% CI) |
R2 (95% CI) |
ICC (95% CI) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day of estimation | 0.640 (0.577 to 0.707) | 0.323 (0.295 to 0.356) | 0.989 (0.986 to 0.992) | 0.984 (0.979 to 988) |
| Two weeks forecast | 0.900 (0.803 to 1.05) | 1.085 (0.673 to 2.598) | 0.980 (0.971 to 0.984) | 0.935 (0.905 to 0.950) |
| One month forecast | 1.393 (1.271 to 1.546) | 2.133 (1.600 to 2.953) | 0.958 (0.948 to 0.966) | 0.828 (0.777 to 0.866) |
| Two months forecast | 1.958 (1.791 to 2.157) | 4.250 (2.907 to 6.735) | 0.931 (0.914 to 0.943) | 0.679 (0.606 to 0.748) |
RMSE root mean squared error in logarithmic case counts, MAPE mean absolute percentage error in case counts, R2 coefficient of determination, ICC intraclass correlation, CI confidence interval