Fig. 1.

Time series of mortality and economic outcomes. These figures show time series for the monthly mortality rate per 10,000 (A and B) and employment–population ratio (C and D). A and C show the time series of the indicated variable in April of each year. B and D compare predicted outcomes to the point estimates for observed outcomes for each variable in 2020; predictions for each variable are calculated using a linear time trend with month fixed effects during the preperiod 2011 to 2019. Mortality data use CDC weighted death count. Mortality data include individuals of any age while economic data include individuals 16 y and older. Heteroskedasticity-robust SEs for calculating confidence intervals within each month are computed with clustering by year.