Table 25:

Scenario Analysis Results—Net Budget Impact

	Budget Impacta
Scenario	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5	Totalb
Scenario 1: Societal Perspective
Phototherapy	611,931	637,173	661,506	685,726	709,628	3,305,965
Other medical costs	3,064	1,389	−1,182	−5,423	−10,880	−13,032
Non-medical costs	−283,077	−480,639	−647,812	−775,996	−871,299	−3,058,823
Total	331,918	157,923	12,512	–95,692	–172,552	234,110
Scenario 2: Incorporating Subsequent Lines of Treatments
Phototherapy	611,931	637,173	661,506	685,726	709,628	3,305,965
Other medical costs	−7,170	−106,729	−225,103	−377,752	−557,052	−1,273,806
Total	604,762	530,444	436,403	307,974	152,576	2,032,159
Scenario 3: 5% Annual Increase in Uptake
Phototherapy	611,931	1,251,966	1,918,367	2,612,902	3,335,739	9,730,904
Other medical costs	3,064	1,113	−5,490	−20,431	−45,155	−66,899
Total	614,995	1,253,079	1,912,877	2,592,470	3,290,584	9,664,005
Scenario 4: 25% Suitable for Home NB-UVB
Phototherapy	305,966	318,587	330,753	342,863	354,814	1,652,983
Other medical costs	1,532	695	−591	−2,711	−5,440	−6,516
Total	307,498	319,281	330,162	340,152	349,374	1,646,467
Scenario 5: 75% Suitable for Home NB-UVB
Phototherapy	917,897	955,760	992,260	1,028,590	1,064,442	4,958,948
Other medical costs	4,596	2,084	−1,773	−8,134	−16,320	−19,548
Total	922,493	957,843	990,487	1,020,456	1,048,122	4,939,400
Scenario 6: Include Portion of People With Unknown Diagnosis on IntelliHealth
Phototherapy	783,377	815,691	846,842	877,847	908,445	4,232,202
Other medical costs	3,923	1,778	−1,513	−6,942	−13,929	−16,683
Total	787,299	817,469	845,328	870,905	894,517	4,215,519
Scenario 7: Eczema
Total (cost of phototherapy only)	189,477	194,619	199,761	204,902	210,044	998,803
Scenario 8: All Photoresponsive Conditions
Total (cost of phototherapy only)	1,209,970	1,234,799	1,259,628	1,284,457	1,309,286	6,298,141

Abbreviations: NB-UVB, narrowband ultraviolet B phototherapy.

^aIn 2019 Canadian dollars.

^bNumbers may not add correctly due to rounding.