Table 17:
Scenario Analyses
| Scenario | Reference Case | Sensitivity Analysis |
|---|---|---|
| Target Population | ||
| Scenario 1: Increased population with severe aortic valve stenosis | Linear projection | 5% additional growth (Appendix 10, Table A23) |
| Scenario 2: Expansion of target population, TAVI uptake in patients currently getting no intervention | Only SAVR patients get TAVI | Additional 5% patients get TAVI (Appendix 10, Table A23) |
| Scenario 3: Increased proportion of SAVR patients at low surgical risk | 80% | 100% |
| Scenario 4: Decreased proportion of SAVR patients at low surgical risk | 80% | 60% |
| Scenario 5: Increased proportion of SAVR patients eligible for TAVI | 70% | 90% |
| Scenario 6: Decreased proportion of SAVR patients eligible for TAVI | 70% | 50% |
| Uptake | ||
| Scenario 7: Faster initial uptake | 50%-95% over 5 y | 75%-95% over 5 y (Appendix 10, Table A23) |
| Scenario 8: Gradual uptake | 50%-95% over 5 y | 20%-50% over 5 y (Appendix 10, Table A23) |
| Cost | ||
| Scenario 9: Cost from probabilistic analyses | Cost from deterministic analyses | Cost from probabilistic analyses (Appendix 10, Table A23) |
| Scenario 10: Cost using only BE TAVI | Average TAVI costs (Table 16) | BE TAVI costs (Table 16) |
| Scenario 11: Cost using only SE TAVI | Average TAVI costs (Table 16) | SE TAVI costs (Table 16) |
| Scenario 12: Varied SAVR procedural costs | Tables 15, 16 | Reduction of SAVR procedural costs by 10% (Appendix 10, Table A23) |
Abbreviations: BE, balloon-expandable; SAVR, surgical aortic valve replacement; SE, self-expanding; TAVI, transcatheter aortic valve implantation.