Table 20:
Budget Impact, Scenario Analyses
| Budget Impact, $ Millionsa | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scenario | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | Total |
| Reference case | 4.68 | 5.57 | 6.48 | 7.37 | 8.26 | 32.36 |
| Scenario 1: Increased population with severe aortic valve stenosis | 5.16 | 6.45 | 7.87 | 9.38 | 10.98 | 39.83 |
| Scenario 2: Expansion of target population, TAVI uptake in patients getting no intervention | 8.40 | 9.38 | 10.37 | 11.34 | 12.30 | 51.80 |
| Scenario 3: Increased proportion of SAVR patients at low surgical risk | 5.83 | 6.95 | 8.08 | 9.20 | 10.30 | 40.36 |
| Scenario 4: Decreased proportion of SAVR patients at low surgical risk | 3.50 | 4.17 | 4.85 | 5.52 | 6.18 | 24.22 |
| Scenario 5: Increased proportion of SAVR patients eligible for TAVI | 6.02 | 7.17 | 8.33 | 9.48 | 10.62 | 41.61 |
| Scenario 6: Decreased proportion of SAVR patients eligible for TAVI | 3.34 | 3.98 | 4.63 | 5.27 | 5.90 | 23.12 |
| Scenario 7: Faster initial uptake | 7.02 | 7.23 | 7.48 | 7.73 | 7.98 | 37.43 |
| Scenario 8: Gradual uptake | 1.87 | 2.51 | 3.16 | 3.79 | 4.42 | 15.75 |
| Scenario 9: Cost from probabilistic analyses | 4.66 | 5.56 | 6.47 | 7.37 | 8.26 | 32.32 |
| Scenario 10: Cost using only BE TAVI | 4.32 | 5.09 | 5.86 | 6.61 | 7.33 | 29.21 |
| Scenario 11: Cost using only SE TAVI | 5.04 | 6.05 | 7.10 | 8.14 | 9.18 | 35.51 |
| Scenario 12: Reduced SAVR procedural costs | 6.07 | 7.30 | 8.57 | 9.82 | 11.09 | 42.84 |
Abbreviations: BE, balloon-expandable; SAVR, surgical aortic valve replacement; SE, self-expanding; TAVI, transcatheter aortic valve implantation.
a
Numbers might appear inexact owing to rounding.