Table A21:
Scenario Analyses, Target Population, and Uptake Values
| Year | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scenario | Variable | 2019/20 | 2020/21 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 | |
| Population | |||||||
| Reference case | SAVR for aortic stenosis, n | 2,006 | 2,043 | 2,079 | 2,116 | 2,152 | |
| Scenario 1: Increased population with severe aortic valve stenosis | SAVR for aortic stenosis, n | 2,106 | 2,247 | 2,391 | 2,539 | 2,690 | |
| Scenario 2: Expansion of target population, TAVI uptake in patients getting no intervention | SAVR for aortic stenosis + additional 5% eligible for TAVI, n | 2,006 + 100 | 2,043 + 102 | 2,079 + 104 | 2,116 + 106 | 2,152 + 108 | |
| Uptake (New Scenario) | |||||||
| Reference case | Uptake rate for TAVI, % | 50 | 61 | 73 | 84 | 95 | |
| TAVI, n | 563 | 702 | 846 | 994 | 1,148 | ||
| SAVR, n | 563 | 444 | 321 | 193 | 60 | ||
| Scenario 7: faster initial uptake | Uptake rate for TAVI, % | 75 | 80 | 85 | 90 | 95 | |
| TAVI, n | 845 | 917 | 992 | 1068 | 1148 | ||
| SAVR, n | 282 | 229 | 175 | 119 | 260 | ||
| Scenario 8: gradual uptake | Uptake rate for TAVI, % | 20 | 28 | 35 | 43 | 50 | |
| TAVI, n | 225 | 315 | 408 | 504 | 604 | ||
| SAVR, n | 901 | 831 | 759 | 683 | 604 | ||
Abbreviations: SAVR, surgical aortic valve replacement; TAVI, transcatheter aortic valve implantation.