Table 3.
Model Comparisons for Risk Prediction of Cardiovascular Events at ARIC Visit 4
| AUC Basica (95% CI) | AUC Extensiona (95% CI) | AUC Differenceb (95% CI) | Continuous NRIb (95% CI) | IDIb (95% CI) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Incident CHD | 0.7102 (0.6991–0.7237) | 0.7139 (0.7027–0.7287) | 0.0038 (0.0014–0.0071) | 0.1385 (0.0696–0.2055) | 0.0036 (0.0015–0.0069) |
| Incident ischemic stroke | 0.7162 (0.6986–0.7397) | 0.7207 (0.7029–0.7433) | 0.0045 (0.0007–0.0098) | 0.1487 (0.0049–0.2572) | 0.0022 (0.0005–0.0053) |
| Incident HF | 0.7455 (0.7356–0.7592) | 0.7523 (0.7415–0.7671) | 0.0068 (0.0034–0.0113) | 0.2660 (0.1980–0.3563) | 0.0082 (0.0043–0.0137) |
| Death | 0.7339 (0.7242–0.7432) | 0.7392 (0.7296–0.7499) | 0.0053 (0.0031–0.0082) | 0.1686 (0.0888–0.2237) | 0.0068 (0.0039–0.0101) |
ARIC indicates Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities; AUC, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; CHD, coronary heart disease; HF, heart failure; IDI, integrated discrimination index; and NRI, net reclassification improvement.
The basic models for CHD, stroke, and death (Pooled Cohort Equation model) were adjusted by age, sex, race, total cholesterol, high‐density lipoprotein cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, antihypertensive medication use, current smoking, and diabetes mellitus status; the basic model for incident HF (ARIC HF model) was adjusted by age, sex, race, heart rate, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, antihypertensive medication use, current smoking, and diabetes mellitus status. The extension models included log galectin‐3.
Extension model vs basic model.