Table 1.

Posterior distributions of the model parameters used in the transmission model of RSV. CrI credible interval

	Parameter	Mean value (95% CrI of posterior where applicable)	Reference for fixed value or prior distribution
μ	Daily number of live births	1863 (fixed)	[8]
1/ξ	Average duration of maternally derived immunity (days)	133.5 (119.6–146.1)	[19–21]
1/ω	Average duration of post-infection immunity (days)	358.9 (350.7–364.7)	[22, 23]
1/σ	Average duration of exposure (days)	4.98 (4.54–5.37)	[24]
1/γ0	Average duration of primary infection (days)	6.16 (5.68–6.63)	[15]
g1	Decrease in secondary infection duration relative to primary	0.87 (0.83–0.91)	[15]
g2	Decrease in subsequent infection duration relative to secondary	0.79 (0.73–0.86)	[15, 24]
p<1	Proportion asymptomatic (< 1 years)	0.0916 (0.031–0.158)	[13]
p1–4	Proportion asymptomatic (1–4 years)	0.163 (0.092–0.223)	[13]
p5–14	Proportion asymptomatic (5–14 years)	0.516 (0.460–0.572)	[13]
p15+	Proportion asymptomatic (15+ years)	0.753 (0.656–0.829)	[13]
α	Relative reduction in infectiousness for asymptomatic infections	0.634 (0.541–0.724)	Fitted
qp	Probability of RSV transmission per physical contact	0.0972 (0.093–0.099)	Fitted
qc	Relative reduction in probability of RSV transmission per conversational contact compared to physical contact	0.998 (0.996–1.000)	Fitted
b1	Relative amplitude of transmission during peak	1.998 (1.992–2.000)	Fitted
φ	Seasonal shift in transmission	0.614 (0.607–0.624)	Fitted
ψ	Seasonality wavelength constant	0.236 (0.220–0.252)	Fitted
Susceptibility
δ1	Secondary infection (relative to primary)	0.89 (0.85–0.93)	[14]
δ2	Tertiary infection (relative to secondary)	0.81 (0.74–0.85)	[14]
δ3	Subsequent infections (relative to tertiary)	0.33 (0.31–0.37)	[14]
Probability that an RSV infection is reported
ϵj	0–4 years	exp(− 4.602–0.233j)	[14, 25]
ϵ17	5–54 years	0.0000305 (0.0000290–0.0000320)	[22]
ϵ18	55+ years	0.000147 (0.000134–0.000160)	[22]