Table 1.

Examples of summaries, recommendations and overall risk level from the wheat rust advisories issued during the 2018 wheat season in Ethiopia.

Summary period	Summary	Recommendations
20 July–8 August 2018	Belg season survey in Arsi Zone (Arsi Robe, Diksis, Lude Hitosa, Sire, Jeju, Guna, Merti) indicated high prevalence of yellow [stripe] rust. No stem rust was reported in Arsi surveys. In some fields severity of yellow [stripe] rust was as high as 80MSS. This is an additional source of inoculum for the main season crop.	Field scouting for early appearance of rusts in emerging Meher season crops is critical. Emerging wheat crops in West Arsi, Arsi and Bale zones are the highest priority areas, but other regions should be alerted for the early appearance of rusts and undertake surveillance.
Overall risk level: Caution: HIGH	Dispersal model forecasts indicate that susceptible wheat crops in Bale zone, West Arsi, Arsi and are at highest risk from known rust infected sites in Bale and Arsi zones. Some dispersal into and across the Rift Valley into Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples’ Region (SNNPR) is also likely.	Awareness should be raised amongst stakeholders at all levels, including farmers, to be vigilant for early appearance of rusts (both stripe and stem rust).
	Varieties with some degree of susceptibility to known stem and stripe rust races are likely to be grown.	Control should be considered if susceptible varieties are grown and disease is present (>10%–20% of leaf/stem area infected).
	Weather conditions, current and forecast, are extremely favourable for rust development.	Sampling of both stem and stripe rust should be undertaken to determine races present.
	There is a very high risk of rust outbreaks on susceptible varieties in the Meher season.
22 October—21 November 2018	Most wheat growing areas are now at or getting close to harvest, with the exception of late planted areas (Belg growing areas e.g. Bale).	In any late planted areas in Oromia/SNNPR there is a continuing risk, especially stem rust outbreaks. Highest risk areas are in Bale, West Arsi, Arsi (e.g. Arsi Robe, Sude) and SNNPR (late planted areas). Control should be undertaken in areas with emerging rust infections. Other at risk areas should be monitored closely and control undertaken if needed on susceptible varieties.
Overall Risk Level: Caution: local HIGH
	Recent surveys in Oromia (Holeta, Ambo, Bako, Kulumsa, Sinana) indicate that both stem and stripe rust are prevalent in most of the areas surveyed. In Holeta surveys stem rust was present in 39% of survey fields and stripe rust in 75%. In Ambo surveys stem rust was present in 94% of survey fields and stripe rust in 30%. In Sinana surveys stem rust was present in 68% of survey fields and stripe rust in 95%. In Bako surveys stem rust was present in 92% of survey fields and stripe rust in 84%. In Kulumsa surveys stem rust was present in 25% of survey fields and stripe rust in 34%.	Awareness should be raised amongst stakeholders at all levels, including farmers, to be vigilant for appearance of rusts (both stripe and increasingly stem rust).
	Northern areas based on available survey data appear to have relatively lower rust pressure, especially stem rust but stripe rust was present in pocket areas in Amhara.	Control should be considered if susceptible varieties are grown and disease is present (>10%–20% of leaf/stem area infected). Early control to stop increased spread and further build-up of disease is very important.
	Environmental/climate suitability forecasts for stripe rust infection (Cambridge Uni/UKMet Office) are now showing much lower risk of infection, due to the cessation of rains.	Sampling of both stem and stripe rust should be undertaken to determine races present.
	Dispersal models indicate a west to south-westerly dispersal direction with Bale/Arsi/West Arsi, SNNPR and east Wellega likely to have the highest spore deposition. into SNNPR highlands from known infected sites in Bale/Arsi. Based on previous years it is likely that these dispersal patterns will continue.