Table 2.

Best model for conifer diversification with the fossil-based diversification models

Models	Marginal likelihood	Bayes factors	Rel. prob.	λ	α	μ	β
Constant BD	−1,004.62	24.06	∼0	0.0101 [0.008–0.0121]	—	0.0069 [0.005–0.009]	—
Carbon-dep. BD (exp.)	−1,002.39	9.8	∼0	0.009 [0.0070–0.0120]	0.0001 [−0.0002–0.0005]	0.009 [0.0060–0.011]	−0.0005 [−0.001–0]
Carbon-dep. BD (lin.)	−1,002.69	10.1	∼0	0.009 [0.0070–0.0119]	0.0002 [−0.0002–0.0006]	0.009 [0.0063–0.0114]	−0.0005 [−0.0007 to −0.0001]
Temp.-dep. BD (exp.)	−999.14	13.1	0.0012	0.005 [0.0028–0.0077]	0.033 [0.013–0.055]	0.017 [0.0102–0.0266]	−0.053 [−0.079 to −0.027]
Temp.-dep. BD (linear)	−998.49	11.8	0.0023	0.006 [0.0035–0.0083]	0.041 [0.009–0.0789]	0.012 [0.0082–0.0157]	−0.022 [−0.027 to −0.014]
Angio-dep. BD (exp.)	−994.41	3.64	0.139	0.007 [0.005–0.0102]	−0.541 [−1.077 to −0.026]	0.012 [0.009–0.016]	1.487 [0.931–2.077]
Angio-dep. BD (linear)	−992.59	0	0.857	0.007 [0.005–0.0101]	−0.705 [−1.553–0.012]	0.013 [0.009–0.016]	0.901 [0.716–1.046]

Six models are compared with the constant birth–death (BD) model: two carbon-dependent (Carbon-dep.) diversification models, two temperature-dependent (Temp.-dep.) diversification models, and two angiosperm-dependent (Angio.-dep.) diversification models. Rates could vary exponentially (exp.) or linearly (linear) with the variables. Values are the mean of the parameter, and the 95% credibility interval is denoted in brackets. The marginal likelihoods, Bayes factors, and relative probabilities (Rel. prob.) allow comparison of all models and selection of the best-fit model. The bold line indicates the best-fitting model, which is the model with the extinction rate positively correlated with the proportion of angiosperms, suggesting that extinction increased when angiosperms diversified, whereas extinction decreased when angiosperms were absent (no significant effect on speciation as the 95% credibility interval overlaps with zero). α, rate of variation of the speciation according to the paleoenvironmental variable; β, rate of variation of the extinction according to the paleoenvironmental variable; λ, baseline origination rate; μ, baseline extinction rate.