Table 5.
Our final Kaiser Permanente Southern California model in comparison with several previous models for forecasting hospitalizations and emergency department visits in patients with asthma.
| Model | Prediction target | Number of features the model used | Number of data instances | Classification algorithm | The undesirable outcome’s prevalence rate in the whole data set (%) | AUCa | Sensitivity (%) | Specificity (%) | PPVb (%) | NPVc (%) |
| Our final KPSCd model | Asthma-related hospital encounters | 221 | 987,506 | XGBooste | 23,278 (2.36) | 0.820 | 2259 (51.90) | 182,176 (90.91) | 2259 (11.03) | 182,176 (98.86) |
| Our Intermountain Healthcare model [23] | Asthma-related hospital encounters | 142 | 334,564 | XGBoost | 12,144 (3.63) | 0.859 | 436 (53.69) | 16,955 (91.93) | 436 (22.65) | 16,955 (97.83) |
| Miller et al [15] | Asthma-related hospital encounters | 17 | 2821 | Logistic regression | 8.5 | 0.81 | —f | — | — | — |
| Loymans et al [10] | Asthma exacerbation | 7 | 611 | Logistic regression | 13 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — |
| Lieu et al [3] | Asthma-related hospitalization | 7 | 16,520 | Proportional hazards regression | 1.8 | 0.79 | — | — | — | — |
| Schatz et al [11] | Asthma-related hospitalization in children | 5 | 4197 | Logistic regression | 1.4 | 0.781 | 43.9 | 89.8 | 5.6 | 99.1 |
| Yurk et al [17] | Lost day or asthma-related hospital encounters | 11 | 4888 | Logistic regression | 54 | 0.78 | 77 | 63 | 82 | 56 |
| Eisner et al [12] | Asthma-related EDg visit | 3 | 2415 | Logistic regression | 18.3 | 0.751 | — | — | — | — |
| Forno et al [22] | Severe asthma exacerbation | 17 | 615 | Scoring | 69.6 | 0.75 | — | — | — | — |
| Schatz et al [11] | Asthma-related hospitalization in adults | 3 | 6904 | Logistic regression | 1.2 | 0.712 | 44.9 | 87.0 | 3.9 | 99.3 |
| Lieu et al [3] | Asthma-related ED visit | 7 | 16,520 | Proportional hazards regression | 6.4 | 0.69 | — | — | — | — |
| Eisner et al [12] | Asthma-related hospitalization | 1 | 2858 | Logistic regression | 32.8 | 0.689 | — | — | — | — |
| Sato et al [13] | Severe asthma exacerbation | 3 | 78 | Classification and regression tree | 21 | 0.625 | — | — | — | — |
| Schatz et al [20] | Asthma-related hospital encounters | 4 | 14,893 | Logistic regression | 6.5 | 0.614 | 25.4 | 92.0 | 22.0 | 93.2 |
| Lieu et al [19] | Asthma-related hospital encounters | 4 | 7141 | Classification and regression tree | 6.9 | — | 49.0 | 83.6 | 18.5 | — |
aAUC: area under the receiver operating characteristic curve.
bPPV: positive predictive value.
cNPV: negative predictive value.
dKPSC: Kaiser Permanente Southern California.
eXGBoost: extreme gradient boosting.
fThe original paper presenting the model did not report the performance measure.
gED: emergency department.