Table 2.
Predictions of reported clinical malaria (uncomplicated and severe cases) incidence rate per 1000 population with 95% pseudo-confidence intervals (95% p.CI) for various coverage levels of LLINs and IRS and LLIN usage (%) or IRS protective efficacy (PE) (%) at 2020 and by 2030 by zone
| Zone | Intervention | Coverage (%) | Usage (%) | PE (%) | Incidence rate/1000 population | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (95% p.CI) by yeara | ||||||||
| LLIN | IRSb | LLIN | LLIN | IRS | 2020 | 2030 | ||
| Guinea savannah | LLINs | 70 | 17 | 56 | 40 | 30 | 169 (117, 245) | 168 (116, 245) |
| 60 | 40 | 30 | 166 (114, 242) | 165 (112,241) | ||||
| 80 | 40 | 30 | 150 (97, 223) | 148 (91,222) | ||||
| 90 | 17 | 56 | 40 | 30 | 160 (108, 245) | 155 (100, 230) | ||
| 60 | 40 | 30 | 156 (104, 230) | 151 (94, 225) | ||||
| 80 | 40 | 30 | 136 (84, 206) | 125 (62, 196) | ||||
| Transitional forest | LLINs | 70 | 0 | 45 | 40 | 30 | 189 (157, 226) | 177 (139, 215) |
| 60 | 40 | 30 | 171 (139,206) | 148 (103, 186) | ||||
| 80 | 40 | 30 | 146 (115,179) | 107(57,145) | ||||
| 90 | 0 | 45 | 40 | 30 | 179 (148, 226) | 159 (109, 190) | ||
| 60 | 40 | 30 | 158 (126, 191) | 113 (64, 151) | ||||
| 80 | 40 | 30 | 130 (100, 160) | 60 (22, 93) | ||||
| Coastal savannah | LLINs | 70 | 0 | 35 | 40 | 30 | 97 (79, 110) | 87 (63, 104) |
| 60 | 40 | 30 | 77 (60, 91) | 51 (26,78) | ||||
| 80 | 40 | 30 | 62 (47, 77) | 27 (10,55) | ||||
| 90 | 0 | 35 | 40 | 30 | 92 (74, 110) | 73 (47, 94) | ||
| 60 | 40 | 30 | 69 (53, 83) | 31 (12, 58) | ||||
| 80 | 40 | 30 | 53 (39, 67) | 11 (4, 28) | ||||
a95% p.CI 2.5 and 97.5% quantiles around the mean of the distribution of the predicted clinical cases of malaria
bBaseline IRS coverage