Table 3.
Predictions of reported clinical malaria (uncomplicated and severe cases) incidence rate per 1000 population with 95% pseudo-confidence intervals (95% p.CI) for various coverage levels of LLINs and IRS and LLIN usage (%) or IRS protective efficacy (PE) (%) in 2020 and by 2030 by zone
| Zone | Intervention | Coverage (%) | Usage (%) | PE (%) | Incidence rate/1000 population | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (95% p.CI) by yeara | ||||||||
| LLIN | IRS | LLIN | LLIN | IRS | 2020 | 2030 | ||
| Guinea savannah | IRS | 66 | 90 | 56 | 40 | 30 | 146 (95, 218) | 102 (36, 169) |
| 56 | 40 | 60 | 105 (59, 164) | 6 (1, 15) | ||||
| 56 | 40 | 80 | 78 (39, 125) | 0 (0, 1) | ||||
| Transitional forest | IRS | 51 | 90 | 45 | 40 | 30 | 159 (128, 192) | 35 (12,59) |
| 45 | 40 | 60 | 121 (94, 149) | 1 (1,1) | ||||
| 45 | 40 | 80 | 99 (75, 122) | 0 (0, 0) | ||||
| Coastal savannah | IRS | 50 | 90 | 35 | 40 | 30 | 75 (59, 89) | 8 (3, 20) |
| 35 | 40 | 60 | 53 (40, 65) | 0 (0, 0) | ||||
| 35 | 40 | 80 | 40 (30, 51) | 0 (0, 0) | ||||
a95% p.CI 2.5 and 97.5% quantiles around the mean of the distribution of the predicted clinical cases of malaria