Table 4.
Predictions of reported clinical malaria (uncomplicated and severe cases) incidence rate per 1000 population with 95% pseudo-confidence intervals (95% p.CI) for various coverage levels of LLINs and IRS and LLIN usage (%) or IRS protective efficacy (PE) (%) in 2020 and by 2030 by zone
| Zone | Intervention | Coverage (%) | Usage (%) | PE (%) | Incidence rate/1000 population | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (95% p.CI) by yeara | ||||||||
| LLIN | IRS | LLIN | LLIN | IRS | 2020 | 2030 | ||
| Guinea savannah | LLIN and IRS | 80 | 80 | 56 | 40 | 30 | 144 (93, 214) | 103 (37, 170) |
| 90 | 90 | 56 | 40 | 30 | 136 (86, 204) | 83 (20, 146) | ||
| 80 | 80 | 60 | 40 | 30 | 140 (89, 210) | 98 (33, 165) | ||
| 80 | 90 | 60 | 40 | 30 | 137 (86, 206) | 86 (23,151) | ||
| Transitional forest | LLIN and IRS | 80 | 80 | 45 | 40 | 30 | 150 (120, 183) | 29 (9, 51) |
| 90 | 90 | 45 | 40 | 30 | 142 (113, 173) | 16 (5,29) | ||
| 80 | 80 | 60 | 40 | 30 | 133 (103, 163) | 16 (5, 30) | ||
| 80 | 90 | 60 | 40 | 30 | 129 (100, 159) | 10 (4, 20) | ||
| Coastal savannah | LLIN and IRS | 80 | 80 | 35 | 40 | 30 | 72 (56, 85) | 7 (3, 18) |
| 90 | 90 | 35 | 40 | 30 | 67 (52, 80) | 4 (2, 10) | ||
| 80 | 80 | 60 | 40 | 30 | 55 (41, 68) | 2 (1,6) | ||
| 80 | 90 | 60 | 40 | 30 | 53 (39, 66) | 2 (1, 4) | ||
a95% p.CI 2.5 and 97.5% quantiles around the mean of the distribution of the predicted clinical cases of malaria