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. 2020 Sep 23;10(2):020701. doi: 10.7189/jogh.10.020701

Table 4.

Burden estimate comparisons between Bayesian and frequentist models

Year Bayesian NNHM Random-effects model
2015
5.51 (2.66-8.82) million*
5.21 (3.47 - 10.40) million
2020
6.66 (3.21-10.7) million
6.28 (4.18 – 12.60) million
2030 9.60 (4.62-15.36) million 8.78 (5.85 –17.56) million

NNHM – normal-normal hierarchical model