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. 2020 Nov 26;20:1806. doi: 10.1186/s12889-020-09913-w

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© The Author(s) 2020

Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data.

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Fig. 2 — Time evolution of COVID-19 epidemic in Italy. The number of infected patients (black squares) and deaths (red crosses) increased exponentially in time (note that the vertical axis has exponential units). The number of intensive care patients (orange circles) grew exponentially until it reached the maximum capacity of the NHS, and then slowed down as the ICU beds saturated in the Italian regions of Lombardy, Piedmont, Marche, Trentino Alto Adige, Valle d’Aosta, which host 28% of the Italian population. The green triangle and diamond represent the lockdown day (March 9th 2020) and full lockdown day (March 21st 2020) respectively. The orange solid line and dotted line represent 100 and 50% of the total number of ICU beds in Italy before the onset of the epidemic, which was equal to 5090 [7]