Health opportunity costs of health care expenditure in each period (t) |
kht
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Estimates reported in Ochalek et al. (2018) could provide initial default estimates of cost per DALY averted
Projections of these estimates based on estimates of health expenditure and consumption growth are possible
These initial estimates can be refined and updated as other country specific estimates emerge
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Consumption opportunity costs of health care expenditure in each period (t) |
kct
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A conservative default assumption of 1 (1 dollar spent on health care delivers 1 dollar in net production)
A conservative default assumption that the real value of the net production effects will grow at the same rate as consumption
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Consumption value of health in each period (t) |
υht
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Country specific estimates of Vht, see Robinson et al. (2019) and Robinson and Hammitt (2018)
Growth in Vht can be based on growth in consumption (gc) and the income elasticity of demand for health
A conservative scenario using an income elasticity of demand for health of 1 (Vht will grow at gc)
Scenario using an income elasticity of demand of 1.5
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Opportunity costs for other sectors (x) in each period (t) Social rate of time preference for consumption |
υxt/kxt
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rc |
A normative assumption of zero pure time preference for social choices is not unreasonable (δ = 0)
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Two scenarios based on alternative assumptions of inequality aversion can be used
Other scenarios can be based on evidence of why η is likely to differ in specific contexts or different judgements about gc
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Catastrophic risk |
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Macroeconomic risk |
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Use of rc without adjustment for macroeconomic risk may be a reasonable for projects with shorter time horizons (⩽30 years)
For longer time horizons or where macroeconomic risk is greater, declining rates may be required but should be based on uncertainty in consumption growth
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Project specific risk |
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Where possible project specific risks should be included in how the time streams of consumption equivalent effects of the project are estimated
A qualitative indication of whether projects are likely to be strongly pro or counter cyclical should be provided
Further research is required on how the interaction of project specific and macroeconomic risk might be best quantified for the types of project relevant to LMICs
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