Table 2.
Estimated cumulative excess breast and colorectal cancer deaths in Canada for 6- and 12-month interruptions followed by operation at reduced (50%) volume for 0, 6, 12, or 24 months.
| Cancer site | Year |
Transition period (months)Excess cumulative deaths (% of baseline model) |
Cumulative deaths (no interruption) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 12 | 24 | |||
| Breast | 6-month interruption | |||||
| 2024 | 70 (0.27%) | 110 (0.43%) | 120 (0.46%) | 160 (0.62%) | 25,810 | |
| 2029 | 250 (0.48%) | 340 (0.65%) | 480 (0.92%) | 730 (1.4%) | 52,060 | |
| 2034 | 390 (0.49%) | 520 (0.66%) | 770 (0.97%) | 1190 (1.5%) | 79,280 | |
| 12-month interruption | ||||||
| 2024 | 150 (0.58%) | – | 200 (0.77%) | 190 (0.74%) | 25,810 | |
| 2029 | 480 (0.92%) | – | 690 (1.3%) | 930 (1.8%) | 52,060 | |
| 2034 | 670 (0.85%) | – | 1040 (1.3%) | 1420 (1.8%) | 79,280 | |
| Colorectal | 6-month interruption | |||||
| 2024 | 130 (0.29%) | 190 (0.43%) | 220 (0.49%) | 240 (0.54%) | 44,630 | |
| 2029 | 450 (0.49%) | 700 (0.76%) | 930 (1.0%) | 1150 (1.2%) | 92,270 | |
| 2034 | 690 (0.48%) | 1050 (0.73%) | 1430 (0.99%) | 1800 (1.2%) | 144,210 | |
| 12-month interruption | ||||||
| 2024 | 260 (0.58%) | – | 300 (0.67%) | 260 (0.58%) | 44,630 | |
| 2029 | 930 (1.0%) | – | 1350 (1.5%) | 1800 (2.0%) | 92,270 | |
| 2034 | 1360 (0.94%) | – | 2090 (1.4%) | 2880 (2.0%) | 144,210 | |