Table 5.
Predictability analysis by state.
| USA | − 0.0509 | (0.4339) | [− 0.1172] | − 0.7506*** | (0.2197) | [− 3.4173] | − 0.0014 | (0.0169) | [− 0.0831] |
| AL | 0.8944*** | (0.2176) | [4.1099] | − 0.5961*** | (0.1160) | [− 5.1383] | − 0.0413*** | (0.0070) | [− 5.8850] |
| AK | − 1.4528*** | (0.2003) | [− 7.2539] | − 0.2449** | (0.1006) | [− 2.4341] | 0.0663*** | (0.0087) | [7.6030] |
| AZ | − 1.4183*** | (0.1309) | [− 10.8362] | − 0.2429*** | (0.0817) | [− 2.9745] | 0.0637*** | (0.0049) | [12.8777] |
| AR | − 0.2565 | (0.4658) | [− 0.5507] | 0.2785 | (0.2531) | [1.1004] | 0.0023 | (0.0124) | [0.1825] |
| CA | − 1.4274*** | (0.0936) | [− 15.2521] | − 0.1634*** | (0.0539) | [− 3.0325] | 0.0642*** | (0.0046) | [13.8481] |
| CO | − 0.9688*** | (0.1916) | [− 5.0561] | 0.3007 | (0.2587) | [1.1623] | 0.0290*** | (0.0074) | [3.9132] |
| CT | − 1.7866*** | (0.0654) | [− 27.3353] | − 0.1645*** | (0.0470) | [− 3.4989] | 0.0782*** | (0.0026) | [30.6221] |
| DE | − 2.0415*** | (0.4639) | [− 4.4003] | − 0.2687 | (0.2446) | [− 1.0987] | 0.0715*** | (0.0110) | [6.4873] |
| DC | − 1.3077*** | (0.1980) | [− 6.6064] | − 0.1548* | (0.0849) | [− 1.8228] | 0.0578*** | (0.0094) | [6.1513] |
| FL | − 1.5483*** | (0.0766) | [− 20.2209] | − 0.2128*** | (0.0431) | [− 4.9412] | 0.0715*** | (0.0024) | [29.3170] |
| GA | − 1.5727*** | (0.0808) | [− 19.4690] | − 0.2047*** | (0.0570) | [− 3.5898] | 0.0721*** | (0.0042) | [17.2658] |
| HI | − 1.6732*** | (0.0873) | [− 19.1647] | − 0.2083*** | (0.0470) | [− 4.4343] | 0.0758*** | (0.0041) | [18.3027] |
| ID | − 1.8929*** | (0.1465) | [− 12.9167]] | − 0.2686*** | (0.0663) | [− 4.0507] | 0.0866*** | (0.0067) | [12.8631] |
| IL | − 1.4466*** | (0.1404) | [− 10.3063] | 0.3943*** | (0.0707) | [5.5764] | 0.0680*** | (0.0056) | [12.2022] |
| IN | − 1.4674*** | (0.2157) | [− 6.8020] | 0.0977 | (0.1624) | [0.6018] | 0.0693*** | (0.0065) | [10.7392] |
| IA | − 1.5912*** | (0.1402) | [− 11.3507] | − 0.2957*** | (0.0733) | [− 4.0346] | 0.0732*** | (0.0042) | [17.3342] |
| KS | − 1.5579*** | (0.2298) | [− 6.7799] | 0.0463 | (0.1101) | [0.4204] | 0.0635*** | (0.0106) | [5.9774] |
| KY | − 1.5530*** | (0.1396) | [− 11.1222] | − 0.2415*** | (0.0599) | [− 4.0291] | 0.0719*** | (0.0062) | [11.5292] |
| LA | − 1.6432*** | (0.0602) | [− 27.2763] | − 0.2050*** | (0.0357) | [− 5.7381] | 0.0751*** | (0.0026) | [28.6534] |
| MD | − 1.1066*** | (0.2339) | [− 4.7306] | 0.1135 | (0.1008) | [1.1255] | 0.0550*** | (0.0088) | [6.2834] |
| MA | − 1.6424*** | (0.0771) | [− 21.3061] | − 0.1757*** | (0.0538) | [− 3.2668] | 0.0742*** | (0.0034) | [21.8651] |
| MI | − 1.7657*** | (0.0813) | [− 21.7133] | − 0.1884*** | (0.0406) | [− 4.6375] | 0.0800*** | (0.0032) | [25.2349] |
| MN | − 1.6085*** | (0.0773) | [− 20.7963] | − 0.2344*** | (0.0521) | [− 4.4970] | 0.0728*** | (0.0027) | [26.9966] |
| MS | − 1.3047*** | (0.2959) | [− 4.4088] | 0.1773 | (0.1600) | [1.1086] | 0.0570*** | (0.0082) | [6.9200] |
| MO | − 1.5382*** | (0.0883) | [− 17.4271] | − 0.2326*** | (0.0478) | [− 4.8610] | 0.0718*** | (0.0051) | [14.0987] |
| NE | − 1.4875*** | (0.1909) | [− 7.7908] | − 0.2192*** | (0.0746) | [− 2.9375] | 0.0717*** | (0.0063) | [11.3935] |
| NV | − 1.6778*** | (0.0862) | [− 19.4683] | − 0.1872*** | (0.0348) | [− 5.3846] | 0.0763*** | (0.0037) | [20.4946] |
| NH | − 1.6586*** | (0.0723) | [− 22.9526] | − 0.1515*** | (0.0365) | [− 4.1562] | 0.0741*** | (0.0025) | [30.0037] |
| NJ | − 1.8518*** | (0.2428) | [− 7.6277] | − 0.2395 | (0.2427) | [− 0.9867] | 0.0688*** | (0.0060) | [11.3949] |
| NM | − 1.2414*** | (0.1640) | [− 7.5679] | − 0.1188 | (0.0803) | [− 1.4805] | 0.0593*** | (0.0066) | [8.9371] |
| NY | − 1.2201*** | (0.0468) | [− 26.0596] | − 0.1482*** | (0.0562) | [− 2.6358] | 0.0482*** | (0.0043) | [11.2916] |
| NC | − 1.6575*** | (0.0953) | [− 17.3914] | − 0.1613*** | (0.0476) | [− 3.3848] | 0.0722*** | (0.0038) | [18.8471] |
| OH | − 1.8408*** | (0.1464) | [− 12.5751] | − 0.1758** | (0.0750) | [− 2.3436] | 0.0790*** | (0.0048) | [16.3817] |
| OK | − 1.7038*** | (0.0544) | [− 31.2986] | − 0.2463*** | (0.0318) | [− 7.7497] | 0.0767*** | (0.0026) | [29.5090] |
| OR | − 0.7953*** | (0.2019) | [− 3.9392] | 0.4395*** | (0.1362) | [3.2257] | 0.0293*** | (0.0069) | [4.2697] |
| PA | − 1.3917*** | (0.1279) | [− 10.8769] | − 0.1845** | (0.0758) | [− 2.4348] | 0.0716*** | (0.0041) | [17.5561] |
| RI | − 1.4924*** | (0.0752) | [− 19.8418] | − 0.1461*** | (0.0408) | [− 3.5844] | 0.0588*** | (0.0049) | [12.1036] |
| SC | − 1.2889*** | (0.0941) | [− 13.7030] | − 0.1816*** | (0.0513) | [− 3.5395] | 0.0520*** | (0.0069) | [7.5216] |
| SD | − 1.1230*** | (0.2939) | [− 3.8212] | 0.2815** | (0.1388) | [2.0277] | 0.0537*** | (0.0084) | [6.4280] |
| TN | − 1.5098*** | (0.0658) | [− 22.9294] | − 0.2157*** | (0.0524) | [− 4.1179] | 0.0676*** | (0.0020) | [33.1730] |
| TX | − 1.4766*** | (0.3041) | [− 4.8557] | 0.2749 | (0.1903) | [1.4442] | 0.0660*** | (0.0077) | [8.5342] |
| UT | − 1.4381*** | (0.1399) | [− 10.2768] | − 0.1586** | (0.0723) | [− 2.1944] | 0.0720*** | (0.0069) | [10.3640] |
| VT | − 1.5359*** | (0.1854) | [− 8.2848] | − 0.2499*** | (0.0848) | [− 2.9476] | 0.0770*** | (0.0081) | [9.5352] |
| VA | − 1.5878*** | (0.2504) | [− 6.3400] | − 0.3147*** | (0.1021) | [− 3.0837] | 0.0767*** | (0.0106) | [7.2484] |
| WA | − 1.3476*** | (0.1540) | [− 8.7488] | − 0.2236** | (0.1007) | [− 2.2212] | 0.0660*** | (0.0101) | [6.5118] |
| WI | − 1.3407*** | (0.0992) | [− 13.5142] | − 0.2143*** | (0.0698) | [− 3.0711] | 0.0618*** | (0.0053) | [11.6287] |
The numbers in parentheses report the standard errors; the t-statistics are given in brackets.
***, ** and * indicate statistical significance at the 0.01, 0.05 and 0.1 levels, respectively. The corresponding critical values are 2.575, 1.96 and 1.645.