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. 2020 Oct 15;103(6):2382–2390. doi: 10.4269/ajtmh.20-0862

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© The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene

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Figure 6. — Correlation between the percentage of positive results among performed tests (POS%) and expected fatality during the 2020 COVID-19 outbreak in Italy and Lombardy. (A) Correlation between POS% and case fatality rate (CFR)^a from February 24 to March 19, and between POS% and expected CFR (expCFR)^b from March 19 to April 13, based on data from Italy. (B) Correlation between POS% and CFR^a from February 24 to March 18, and between POS% and expCFR^b from March 19 and April 13, based on data from Lombardy. Black dots: data from February 24 to February 29. Blue dots: March 1–24. Green dots: March 25–April 3. Yellow dots: April 4–13. Red dots: March 21–22, outlier values for CFR that were excluded from the correlation analysis of the data from Lombardy. ^aCase fatality rate is calculated by dividing the number of deaths in patients who tested positive for COVID-19 by the cumulative number of cases at a specific point in time. ^bExpected CFR is calculated by dividing the A parameters of the best-fitting logistic curves of the cumulative number of deaths and cases, at a specific point in time.