Fig 4. The additional clinical cases averted when all doses are available compared to when the 3 pilot countries (Ghana, Kenya, and Malawi) are always prioritised.

Additional annual clinical cases averted in 0- to 5-year-old children in the first 5 years following vaccine introduction, for each of the baseline intervention scenarios: (A) “Maintain 2016 coverage” and (B) “High coverage.” Dose constraints are optimised at the admin-1 level (outside of prioritisation countries). Two vaccine coverage scenarios are shown. The “Realistic coverage” scenario is based on country-level DTP3 coverage for the first 3 vaccine doses, with coverage of the fourth dose set to 80% of that of dose 3. The shaded regions represent 95% CrI, based on 50 parameter draws. Note that the total doses required at the lowest dose constraint (10 million) was 10.3 million in order to prioritise all 3 pilot countries. admin-1, first administrative unit; CrI, credible interval; DTP3, diphtheria, tetanus and pertussis vaccine dose 3.