Table 2. Accuracy of different time series models for cumulative confirmed cases.
Method | RMSE | MAE |
---|---|---|
SES | 2499.41 | 1621.75 |
Mean | 53559.24 | 42203.94 |
Naïve | 2509.73 | 1635.32 |
Seasonal Naïve | 17138.84 | 11261.96 |
Drift | 1903.80 | 1535.86 |
Holt’s Linear Trend | 422.97 | 269.17 |
Holt’s Linear Damped Trend | 502.91 | 305.60 |
Holt-Winter’s Seasonal Additive | 534.92 | 372.66 |
Holt-Winter’s Seasonal Multiplicative | 975.92 | 684.93 |
ETS(A,A,N) | 422.97 | 269.16 |
ARIMA(0,2,1)(1,0,0) [7] | 413.90 | 268.01 |