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. 2020 Nov 30;15(11):e0242762. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0242762

Table 2. Accuracy of different time series models for cumulative confirmed cases.

Method RMSE MAE
SES 2499.41 1621.75
Mean 53559.24 42203.94
Naïve 2509.73 1635.32
Seasonal Naïve 17138.84 11261.96
Drift 1903.80 1535.86
Holt’s Linear Trend 422.97 269.17
Holt’s Linear Damped Trend 502.91 305.60
Holt-Winter’s Seasonal Additive 534.92 372.66
Holt-Winter’s Seasonal Multiplicative 975.92 684.93
ETS(A,A,N) 422.97 269.16
ARIMA(0,2,1)(1,0,0) [7] 413.90 268.01