Figure 3.
Optimization of evacuation plans. (a) The change in the number of evacuees to destination counties in southeast United States in the optimized evacuation plan compared with the baseline evacuation scenario. Evacuation was optimized for the setting in which transmission rates in destination counties increase by 10%. (b) Excess cases for the baseline and optimized evacuation scenarios are compared for the origin and destination counties combined (left column), only origin counties (middle column), and only destination counties (right column). Simulations were performed for three settings: no increase (top row), 10% increase (middle row), and 20% increase (bottom row) of the transmission rates in destination counties. Boxes and whiskers show the median, interquartile and 95% CIs. Asterisks indicate that excess cases are significantly lower than the baseline scenario (Wilcoxon signed rank test, p < 10−5). Results are obtained from 100 model simulations.