Table 3.
Results of projections of confirmed cases of Covid-19 between May 6 and 11, 2020 for the states of the Northeast Region.
| State | Date | Forecasted value | Lower limit | Upper limit | Actual cases | Absolute percentage error* | Absolute percentage error** | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alagoas | 2020-05-06 | 1,687 | 1,642 | 1,732 | 1,703 | 0.95 | – | 7.91 |
| 2020-05-07 | 1,769 | 1,686 | 1,851 | 1,867 | 5.27 | 0.84 | ||
| 2020-05-08 | 1,851 | 1,725 | 1,976 | 2,033 | 8.97 | 2.81 | ||
| 2020-05-09 | 1,932 | 1,759 | 2,105 | 2,170 | 10.95 | 2.98 | ||
| 2020-05-10 | 2,014 | 1,789 | 2,239 | 2,258 | 10.80 | 0.83 | ||
| 2020-05-11 | 2,096 | 1,815 | 2,377 | 2,343 | 10.54 | – | ||
| Bahia | 2020-05-06 | 4,288 | 4,230 | 4,347 | 4,301 | 0.29 | – | 2.24 |
| 2020-05-07 | 4,515 | 4,416 | 4,614 | 4,528 | 0.29 | – | ||
| 2020-05-08 | 4,821 | 4,672 | 4,969 | 4,818 | 0.05 | – | ||
| 2020-05-09 | 5,023 | 4,807 | 5,239 | 5,174 | 2.91 | – | ||
| 2020-05-10 | 5,320 | 5,044 | 5,596 | 5,558 | 4.28 | – | ||
| 2020-05-11 | 5,555 | 5,200 | 5,910 | 5,808 | 4.35 | – | ||
| Ceará | 2020-05-06 | 12,119 | 11,409 | 12,829 | 12,310 | 1.55 | – | 9.66 |
| 2020-05-07 | 12,768 | 11,677 | 13,858 | 13,888 | 8.07 | 0.21 | ||
| 2020-05-08 | 13,416 | 11,973 | 14,860 | 15,134 | 11.35 | 1.81 | ||
| 2020-05-09 | 14,065 | 12,272 | 15,858 | 15,879 | 11.42 | 0.13 | ||
| 2020-05-10 | 14,714 | 12,567 | 16,861 | 16,692 | 11.85 | – | ||
| 2020-05-11 | 15,363 | 12,854 | 17,872 | 17,599 | 12.71 | – | ||
| Maranhão | 2020-05-06 | 5,526 | 5,398 | 5,654 | 5,389 | 2.54 | – | 5.18 |
| 2020-05-07 | 6,024 | 5,738 | 6,310 | 5,909 | 1.95 | – | ||
| 2020-05-08 | 6,522 | 6,044 | 7,000 | 6,765 | 3.59 | – | ||
| 2020-05-09 | 7,020 | 6,320 | 7,720 | 7,599 | 7.62 | – | ||
| 2020-05-10 | 7,518 | 6,571 | 8,465 | 8,144 | 7.69 | – | ||
| 2020-05-11 | 8,016 | 6,797 | 9,235 | 8,526 | 5.98 | – | ||
| Paraíba | 2020-05-06 | 1,586 | 1,555 | 1,617 | 1,657 | 4.26 | 2.39 | 7.11 |
| 2020-05-07 | 1,750 | 1,701 | 1,799 | 1,849 | 5.35 | 2.68 | ||
| 2020-05-08 | 1,860 | 1,782 | 1,938 | 2,030 | 8.39 | 4.55 | ||
| 2020-05-09 | 1,987 | 1,870 | 2,104 | 2,156 | 7.85 | 2.43 | ||
| 2020-05-10 | 2,136 | 1,983 | 2,289 | 2,341 | 8.75 | 2.21 | ||
| 2020-05-11 | 2,243 | 2,044 | 2,443 | 2,525 | 11.15 | 3.26 | ||
| Pernambuco | 2020-05-06 | 9,767 | 9,586 | 9,948 | 9,881 | 1.16 | – | 8.69 |
| 2020-05-07 | 10,208 | 9,894 | 10,522 | 10,824 | 5.69 | 2.79 | ||
| 2020-05-08 | 10,650 | 10,193 | 11,107 | 11,587 | 8.09 | 4.14 | ||
| 2020-05-09 | 11,092 | 10,479 | 11,705 | 12,470 | 11.05 | 6.14 | ||
| 2020-05-10 | 11,534 | 10,753 | 12,314 | 13,275 | 13.12 | 7.24 | ||
| 2020-05-11 | 11,975 | 11,015 | 12,935 | 13,768 | 13.02 | 6.05 | ||
| Piauí | 2020-05-06 | 1,032 | 1,012 | 1,053 | 1,051 | 1.78 | – | 1.47 |
| 2020-05-07 | 1,111 | 1,074 | 1,147 | 1,131 | 1.81 | – | ||
| 2020-05-08 | 1,192 | 1,133 | 1,250 | 1,233 | 3.36 | – | ||
| 2020-05-09 | 1,271 | 1,188 | 1,354 | 1,278 | 0.54 | – | ||
| 2020-05-10 | 1,351 | 1,242 | 1,461 | 1,332 | 1.45 | – | ||
| 2020-05-11 | 1,431 | 1,292 | 1,570 | 1,443 | 0.82 | – | ||
| Rio Grande do Norte | 2020-05-06 | 1,724 | 1,654 | 1,794 | 1,739 | 0.86 | – | 3.42 |
| 2020-05-07 | 1,804 | 1,695 | 1,913 | 1,821 | 0.93 | – | ||
| 2020-05-08 | 1,884 | 1,737 | 2,031 | 1,919 | 1.82 | – | ||
| 2020-05-09 | 1,964 | 1,779 | 2,149 | 1,919 | 2.35 | – | ||
| 2020-05-10 | 2,044 | 1,819 | 2,269 | 1,919 | 6.52 | – | ||
| 2020-05-11 | 2,124 | 1,858 | 2,390 | 1,989 | 6.79 | – | ||
| Sergipe | 2020-05-06 | 977 | 938 | 1,016 | 998 | 2.08 | – | 17.64 |
| 2020-05-07 | 1,055 | 999 | 1,111 | 1,214 | 13.12 | 8.52 | ||
| 2020-05-08 | 1,171 | 1,083 | 1,260 | 1,438 | 18.55 | 12.39 | ||
| 2020-05-09 | 1,236 | 1,108 | 1,363 | 1,588 | 22.18 | 14.16 | ||
| 2020-05-10 | 1,341 | 1,178 | 1,504 | 1,771 | 24.29 | 15.09 | ||
| 2020-05-11 | 1,431 | 1,220 | 1,642 | 1,800 | 20.49 | 8.77 |
The * symbol is the error between the forecasted values and the current cases, while ** indicates the percentage error between the current value and one of the limits (lower or higher).