Table 4.
Results of projections of confirmed cases of covid-19 between May 6 and 11, 2020 for the states of the Northern Region.
| State | Date | Forecasted value | Lower limit | Upper limit | Actual cases | Absolute percentage error* | Absolute percentage error** | MAPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Acre | 2020-05-06 | 889 | 870 | 908 | 943 | 5.73 | 3.69 | 11.48 |
| 2020-05-07 | 968 | 931 | 1,005 | 1,014 | 4.54 | 0.90 | ||
| 2020-05-08 | 1,041 | 977 | 1,105 | 1,177 | 11.56 | 6.13 | ||
| 2020-05-09 | 1,118 | 1,025 | 1,211 | 1,335 | 16.26 | 9.27 | ||
| 2020-05-10 | 1,192 | 1,064 | 1,320 | 1,447 | 17.63 | 8.77 | ||
| 2020-05-11 | 1,268 | 1,102 | 1,434 | 1,460 | 13.16 | 1.81 | ||
| Amazonas | 2020-05-06 | 8,833 | 8,656 | 9,010 | 9,243 | 4.43 | – | 5.38 |
| 2020-05-07 | 9,557 | 9,218 | 9,897 | 10,099 | 5.36 | 2.00 | ||
| 2020-05-08 | 10,282 | 9,754 | 10,809 | 10,727 | 4.15 | – | ||
| 2020-05-09 | 11,006 | 10,267 | 11,744 | 11,925 | 7.71 | 1.52 | ||
| 2020-05-10 | 11,730 | 10,759 | 12,701 | 12,599 | 6.90 | – | ||
| 2020-05-11 | 12,454 | 11,231 | 13,677 | 12,919 | 3.60 | – | ||
| Amapá | 2020-05-06 | 2,140 | 2,052 | 2,227 | 2,046 | 4.58 | – | 11.31 |
| 2020-05-07 | 2,348 | 2,189 | 2,508 | 2,199 | 6.79 | – | ||
| 2020-05-08 | 2,557 | 2,316 | 2,798 | 2,322 | 10.11 | – | ||
| 2020-05-09 | 2,765 | 2,435 | 3,096 | 2,493 | 10.93 | – | ||
| 2020-05-10 | 2,974 | 2,545 | 3,403 | 2,613 | 13.82 | – | ||
| 2020-05-11 | 3,183 | 2,647 | 3,718 | 2,671 | 19.16 | – | ||
| Pará | 2020-05-06 | 5,136 | 4,991 | 5,281 | 5,524 | 7.03 | 4.40 | 8.65 |
| 2020-05-07 | 5,516 | 5,267 | 5,765 | 5,935 | 7.06 | 2.87 | ||
| 2020-05-08 | 5,896 | 5,536 | 6,256 | 6,519 | 9.56 | 4.04 | ||
| 2020-05-09 | 6,276 | 5,796 | 6,756 | 7,018 | 10.58 | 3.74 | ||
| 2020-05-10 | 6,656 | 6,046 | 7,265 | 7,348 | 9.42 | 1.13 | ||
| 2020-05-11 | 7,035 | 6,288 | 7,783 | 8,069 | 12.81 | 3.54 | ||
| Rondônia | 2020-05-06 | 966 | 937 | 995 | 943 | 2.44 | – | 7.54 |
| 2020-05-07 | 1,071 | 1,007 | 1,135 | 1,098 | 2.46 | – | ||
| 2020-05-08 | 1,176 | 1,068 | 1,284 | 1,222 | 3.76 | – | ||
| 2020-05-09 | 1,281 | 1,123 | 1,439 | 1,263 | 1.43 | – | ||
| 2020-05-10 | 1,386 | 1,172 | 1,600 | 1,302 | 6.45 | – | ||
| 2020-05-11 | 1,491 | 1,216 | 1,766 | 1,398 | 6.65 | – | ||
| Roraima | 2020-05-06 | 1,160 | 1,072 | 1,248 | 932 | 24.46 | 15.06 | 62.15 |
| 2020-05-07 | 1,451 | 1,255 | 1,647 | 1,020 | 42.25 | 23.04 | ||
| 2020-05-08 | 1,742 | 1,414 | 2,070 | 1,124 | 54.98 | 25.81 | ||
| 2020-05-09 | 2,033 | 1,553 | 2,513 | 1,202 | 69.13 | 29.20 | ||
| 2020-05-10 | 2,324 | 1,674 | 2,974 | 1,290 | 80.16 | 29.77 | ||
| 2020-05-11 | 2,615 | 1,779 | 3,451 | 1,295 | 101.93 | 37.37 | ||
| Tocantins | 2020-05-06 | 381 | 370 | 392 | 423 | 9.90 | 7.24 | 23.19 |
| 2020-05-07 | 420 | 405 | 434 | 494 | 15.00 | 12.07 | ||
| 2020-05-08 | 459 | 437 | 481 | 572 | 19.81 | 15.97 | ||
| 2020-05-09 | 497 | 465 | 530 | 688 | 27.70 | 22.97 | ||
| 2020-05-10 | 536 | 491 | 581 | 747 | 28.21 | 22.17 | ||
| 2020-05-11 | 575 | 516 | 634 | 828 | 30.55 | 23.37 |
The * symbol is the error between the forecasted values and the current cases, while ** indicates the percentage error between the current value and one of the limits (lower or higher).