Table 3. Factors Associated With Risk of Progression to Either WF or HRS.
| Characteristic | Univariable HR (95% CI) | P value | Multivariable HR (95% CI)a | P value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Male sex | 1.08 (0.76-1.53) | .64 | NA | |
| Age at diagnosis (per increasing year) | 1.08 (0.99-1.02) | .31 | NA | |
| BMI (per increasing unit) | 1.07 (1.02-1.12) | .004 | NA | |
| BMI>26.4 | 2.06 (1.44-2.95) | <.001 | 1.72 (1.19-2.50) | .004 |
| Diabetes | 1.19 (0.73-1.95) | .46 | NA | |
| Insulin-dependent diabetes | 0.54 (0.13-2.2) | .54 | NA | |
| Ever smoking | 1.57 (1.16-2.21) | .01 | NA | |
| Heavy smokinga | 2.48 (1.6-3.8) | <.001 | 1.81 (1.14-2.86) | .01 |
| Alcohol drinker | 1.2 (0.83-1.72) | .31 | NA | |
| Heavy alcohol drinkerb | 1.52 (0.71-3.25) | .27 | NA | |
| 1st-degree family history of any cancer | 1.42 (0.98-1.36) | .06 | NA | |
| 1st-degree family history of pancreatic cancer | 1.30 (0.66-1.72) | >.99 | NA | |
| Personal history of previous neoplasia | 0.84 (0.56-1.25) | .84 | NA | |
| Size of largest BD-IPMN (per increasing mm) | 1.06 (1.03-1.09) | <.001 | NA | |
| Size >15 mm | 2.27 (1.61-3.21) | <.001 | 2.05 (1.44-2.91) | <.001 |
| Multifocal lesions | 0.94 (0.66-1.23) | .94 | NA |
Abbreviations: BD-IPMN, branch-duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm; BMI, body mass index (calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared); HR, hazard ratio; HRS, high-risk stigmata; NA, not analyzed; WF, worrisome feature.
a
Heavy smoking defined as greater than 20 pack-years.
b
Heavy drinking defined as greater than 21 alcohol U/wk.