Table 6.

Modified diffusion model parameters.

		Submodel 1 - Cases					Submodel 2 - Fatalities
Country	Stage	RMSE	d	p	q	k	RMSE	$\delta$	c
Argentina	initial	3.6E−06	11	7E−06	0.13	114	1.8E−04	19	0.07
Bangladesh	initial	1.1E−06	11	3E−05	0.14	321	6.6E−06	5	0.02
Bolivia	initial	8.4E−06	10	5E−05	0.14	137	5.7E−04	5	0.04
Colombia	initial	5.3E−06	10	1E−05	0.13	40	1.4E−04	5	0.04
Egypt	initial	1.1E−06	12	2E−05	0.13	483	1.3E−04	6	0.05
India	initial	2.4E−07	14	3E−05	0.10	1001	2.4E−06	6	0.03
Iraq	initial	2.3E−06	11	2E−08	0.22	1010	2.2E−05	8	0.05
Nigeria	initial	3.8E−07	10	3E−05	0.11	446	6.7E−07	5	0.03
Pakistan	initial	2.2E−06	9	6E−06	0.14	42	6.1E−06	6	0.02
Philippines	initial	1.2E−06	11	7E−07	0.11	10	1.0E−04	7	0.06
	Averages	2.6E−06	11	1E−05	0.125	240.9	1E−05	7.2	0.04
Afghanistan	mid	3.0E−06	11	5E−05	0.15	588	5.5E−05	6	0.02
Brazil	mid	1.7E−05	13	4E−05	0.12	90	1.3E−02	5	0.07
Chile	mid	2.6E−05	10	4E−05	0.15	30	2.3E−03	19	0.04
Guatemala	mid	2.5E−06	11	1E−05	0.14	396	3.7E−05	16	0.08
Mexico	mid	2.6E−06	10	6E−05	0.14	164	6.6E−05	8	0.15
Peru	mid	3.4E−05	12	1E−04	0.13	50	2.1E−03	6	0.03
Poland	mid	2.6E−06	10	9E−05	0.09	44	1.8E−04	5	0.05
South Africa	mid	4.8E−06	10	1E−05	0.14	76	3.0E−06	12	0.04
Sudan	mid	1.9E−06	9	5E−05	0.15	1820	8.7E−06	7	0.07
Sweden	mid	2.5E−05	13	2E−05	0.07	2	6.6E−02	5	0.12
Ukraine	mid	3.5E−06	10	7E−05	0.11	49	1.4E−05	5	0.03
	Averages	1.1E−05	11	5E−05	0.125	300.9	7.6E−03	8.6	0.06
Austria	ending	9.1E−06	5	6E−03	0.26	440	8.2E−04	13	0.04
Belgium	ending	2.1E−05	9	2E−03	0.15	125	3.8E−02	7	0.17
Canada	ending	6.3E−06	9	5E−04	0.13	154	7.5E−04	11	0.09
Czech	ending	1.2E−05	8	2E−02	0.09	1115	6.4E−05	8	0.04
Denmark	ending	1.7E−05	7	3E−03	0.14	300	1.8E−03	6	0.06
France	ending	1.3E−05	11	1E−04	0.17	354	5.1E−03	8	0.20
Germany	ending	8.5E−06	7	2E−03	0.19	300	3.0E−04	15	0.05
Hungary	ending	2.2E−06	9	1E−03	0.14	1376	3.4E−05	9	0.14
Ireland	ending	2.4E−05	11	5E−04	0.17	154	2.2E−03	9	0.07
Italy	ending	1.0E−05	10	8E−04	0.13	160	1.6E−03	5	0.14
Japan	ending	1.2E−06	9	2E−04	0.15	2000	6.2E−06	16	0.05
Netherlands	ending	7.5E−06	8	1E−03	0.16	214	1.5E−03	5	0.13
Portugal	ending	1.8E−05	5	3E−03	0.16	156	5.6E−04	8	0.05
Romania	ending	4.3E−06	8	2E−03	0.09	354	5.7E−05	5	0.07
Spain	ending	1.9E−05	8	2E−03	0.19	140	1.8E−02	7	0.12
Switzerland	ending	1.4E−05	7	2E−03	0.21	200	3.2E−03	12	0.05
Turkey	ending	5.8E−06	6	1E−03	0.18	242	9.3E−05	6	0.03
United Kingdom	ending	1.3E−05	10	5E−04	0.13	108	1.1E−01	5	0.15
United States	ending	1.8E−05	10	3E−04	0.11	43	8.8E−03	5	0.06
	Averages	1.2E−05	8	2E−03	0.156	417.6	1.0E−02	8.4	0.09