Table 4.
Estimated lifetime probability (absolute risks estimated from Taiwan cohort) of bladder and lung cancer versus dose from the weighted bootstrap models, with and without constraints on slope or power parameters, based on data from Chen et al. (2010a, b).
| Predicted lifetime risks | Inorganic arsenic intake dose, µg/kg-day |
|||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 20 | 40 | |
| Bladder Cancer | ||||||||
| Constrained Models | ||||||||
| 2.5th Percentile | 3.8E-04 | 5.9E-04 | 1.0E-03 | 2.8E-03 | 5.0E-03 | 1.1E-02 | 1.5E-02 | 2.2E-02 |
| Mean | 4.2E-03 | 4.2E-03 | 4.5E-03 | 5.3E-03 | 7.9E-03 | 1.7E-02 | 2.4E-02 | 3.6E-02 |
| 97.5th Percentile | 7.0E-03 | 7.1E-03 | 7.2E-03 | 7.7E-03 | 1.1E-02 | 2.8E-02 | 3.4E-02 | 5.1E-02 |
| Unconstrained Models | ||||||||
| 2.5th Percentile | 1.0E-04 | 7.0E-04 | 1.3E-03 | 3.0E-03 | 5.3E-03 | 1.1E-02 | 1.6E-02 | 2.3E-02 |
| Mean | 2.4E-03 | 3.0E-03 | 3.7E-03 | 5.1E-03 | 8.2E-03 | 1.7E-02 | 2.4E-02 | 3.5E-02 |
| 97.5th Percentile | 6.3E-03 | 6.3E-03 | 6.5E-03 | 7.3E-03 | 1.1E-02 | 2.5E-02 | 3.3E-02 | 5.0E-02 |
| Lung Cancer | ||||||||
| Constrained Models | ||||||||
| 2.5th percentile | 1.8E-02 | 1.9E-02 | 1.9E-02 | 2.0E-02 | 2.3E-02 | 2.6E-02 | 3.0E-02 | 3.9E-02 |
| Mean | 2.3E-02 | 2.3E-02 | 2.4E-02 | 2.4E-02 | 2.7E-02 | 3.3E-02 | 4.0E-02 | 5.5E-02 |
| 97.5th Percentile | 2.8E-02 | 2.8E-02 | 2.8E-02 | 2.8E-02 | 3.3E-02 | 4.8E-02 | 5.4E-02 | 7.5E-02 |
| Unconstrained Models | ||||||||
| 2.5th percentile | 5.5E-03 | 1.3E-02 | 1.7E-02 | 1.9E-02 | 2.3E-02 | 2.6E-02 | 2.9E-02 | 3.9E-02 |
| Mean | 2.0E-02 | 2.2E-02 | 2.3E-02 | 2.4E-02 | 2.8E-02 | 3.4E-02 | 3.7E-02 | 5.5E-02 |
| 97.5th Percentile | 2.7E-02 | 2.7E-02 | 2.7E-02 | 2.8E-02 | 3.4E-02 | 4.7E-02 | 5.1E-02 | 7.3E-02 |