Table 1. Estimated excess deaths by province based on historical trends (1398 SH, 2019-20) .
| Province | Fall | Winter | ||||
| Difference* | 95% Confidence Interval | Difference* | 95% Confidence Interval | |||
| Lower Bound* | Upper Bound* | Lower Bound* | Upper Bound* | |||
| Alborz | 426 (14.19%) | 108 (3.58%) | 745 (24.81%) | 351 (11.43%) | 55 (1.79%) | 647 (21.06%) |
| Ardabil | 114 (6.24%) | -61 (-3.34%) | 289 (15.83%) | 45 (2.50%) | -133 (-7.46%) | 222 (12.46%) |
| Azerbaijan, East | 732 (11.82%) | 455 (7.35%) | 1010 (16.29%) | -118 (-2.04%) | -395 (-6.85%) | 159 (2.77%) |
| Azerbaijan, West | 333 (8.16%) | 118 (2.91%) | 547 (13.42%) | 24 (0.60%) | -190 (-4.72%) | 238 (5.91%) |
| Bushehr | 162 (13.04%) | 55 (4.44%) | 269 (21.64%) | -21 (-1.80%) | -128 (-10.84%) | 85 (7.24%) |
| Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari | 19 (1.86%) | -89 (-8.69%) | 128 (12.41%) | 45 (4.26%) | -58 (-5.51%) | 149 (14.03%) |
| Fars | 346 (5.97%) | 82 (1.42%) | 609 (10.52%) | -8 (-0.13%) | -277 (-4.79%) | 262 (4.53%) |
| Gilan | 265 (5.98%) | 54 (1.23%) | 475 (10.73%) | 15 24 (25.68%) | 1314 (22.14%) | 1735 (29.22%) |
| Golestan | 258 (10.14%) | 168 (6.58%) | 349 (13.71%) | 535 (18.17%) | 445 (15.09%) | 626 (21.25%) |
| Hamedan | 244 (8.57%) | -24 (-0.85%) | 512 (17.99%) | -22 (-0.82%) | -302 (-11.14%) | 258 (9.50%) |
| Hormozgan | 142 (8.02%) | -22 (-1.26%) | 306 (17.30%) | -38 (-2.09%) | -207 (-11.53%) | 132 (7.36%) |
| Ilam | 62 (9.09%) | -9 (-1.26%) | 134 (19.45%) | -54 (-8.48%) | -128 (-20.23%) | 21 (3.27%) |
| Isfahan | 746 (11.35%) | 255 (3.87%) | 1238 (18.83%) | 487 (7.24%) | -5 (-0.07%) | 979 (14.54%) |
| Kerman | 72 (1.98%) | -253 (-6.98%) | 396 (10.94%) | -111 (-3.02%) | -429 (-11.65%) | 206 (5.60%) |
| Kermanshah | 346 (11.28%) | 84 (2.75%) | 607 (19.81%) | 78 (2.70%) | -228 (-7.88%) | 385 (13.28%) |
| Khorasan, North | 268 (19.86%) | 154 (11.41%) | 382 (28.31%) | 92 (7.43%) | -22 (-1.80%) | 206 (16.66%) |
| Khorasan, Razavi | 755 (8.82%) | 326 (3.81%) | 1183 (13.82%) | -421 (-5.38%) | -839 (-10.72%) | -2 (-0.03%) |
| Khorasan, South | 155 (13.79%) | 19 (1.71%) | 291 (25.87%) | 1 (0.14%) | -134 (-13.73%) | 137 (14.01%) |
| Khuzestan | 537 (9.26%) | 137 (2.36%) | 938 (16.16%) | -100 (-1.79%) | -490 (-8.81%) | 291 (5.23%) |
| Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad | 19 (2.58%) | -73 (-9.92%) | 111 (15.08%) | -36 (-5.09%) | -126 (-17.70%) | 53 (7.52%) |
| Kurdistan | 206 (10.45%) | 34 (1.71%) | 379 (19.19%) | 20 (1.07%) | -152 (-7.95%) | 193 (10.10%) |
| Lorestan | 131 (5.58%) | -94 (-4.00%) | 355 (15.16%) | 24 (1.05%) | -200 (-8.71%) | 248 (10.81%) |
| Markazi | 105 (5.12%) | -42 (-2.04%) | 251 (12.28%) | 166 (7.86%) | 17 (0.79%) | 315 (14.93%) |
| Mazandaran | 337 (7.40%) | 110 (2.41%) | 564 (12.40%) | 1002 (18.99%) | 774 (14.68%) | 1229 (23.30%) |
| Qazvin | 171 (10.07%) | 35 (2.07%) | 307 (18.08%) | 146 (8.47%) | 10 (0.60%) | 283 (16.35%) |
| Qom | 105 (6.47%) | 37 (2.27%) | 173 (10.67%) | 717 (31.09%) | 648 (28.13%) | 785 (34.05%) |
| Semnan | 25 (2.78%) | -61 (-6.66%) | 111 (12.22%) | 52 (5.43%) | -24 (-2.58%) | 128 (13.44%) |
| Sistan and Baluchestan | -303 (-9.10%) | -1183 (-35.47%) | 576 (17.28%) | -398 (-11.73%) | -1261 (-37.21%) | 466 (13.75%) |
| Tehran | 919 (5.81%) | 105 (0.67%) | 1732 (10.95%) | 1011 (6.03%) | 134 (0.80%) | 1889 (11.26%) |
| Yazd | 125 (9.31%) | -2 (-0.14%) | 252 (18.76%) | 104 (7.79%) | -26 (-1.93%) | 233 (17.51%) |
| Zanjan | 193 (12.84%) | 53 (3.57%) | 332 (22.11%) | 50 (3.55%) | -90 (-6.41%) | 189 (13.52%) |
| Iran | 7507 (7.26%) | 3350 (3.24%) | 11664 (11.28%) | 5180 (4.90%) | 1023 (0.97%) | 9337 (8.83%) |
*: Count (percentage of excess deaths compared to total deaths); statistically significant differences, compared to the historical trends, are shown in bold.