Table 1.
Estimated rates of death and permanent disability from various infectious diseases in the USA in the absence of mass vaccination among normal and high risk individuals <80 years of age, 2014.
| Infection | Range of Reference Years Used for Estimates | Number of Cases (Morbidity) (A) |
Population in 100,000 s (B) |
Estimated Number of Cases of Death and Permanent Disability (C) |
Rate: Deaths and Disabilities Per Number of Cases [C ÷ A] |
Rate: Deaths and Disabilities Per 100,000 Population [C ÷ B] (95% C.I.) |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normal Risk a |
High Risk a |
Normal Risk a |
High Risk a |
All Risk | Normal Risk a |
High Risk a |
|||
| Measles | 1959–1962 | 4,000,000 | 2920 | 150 | 41 | 467 | 0.01% | 0.014 (0.010–0.018) | 3.11 (2.83 to 3.40) |
| Mumps | 1963–1966 | 4,000,000 | 3070 | 0 | 61 | 0 | 0.002% | 0.020 (0.015–0.025) | 0 |
| Rubella | 1960–1968 | 4,000,000 | 3000 | 70 | 19 | 140 | 0.004% | 0.006 (0.003–0.009) | 2.00 (1.67–2.33) |
| Tetanus | 1943–1945 | 1800 | 3070 | 0 | 113 | 0 | 6.3% | 0.037 (0.029–0.043) | 0 |
| Diphtheria | 1879–1945 | 560 | 3070 | 0 | 28 | 0 | 5% | 0.009 (0.006–0.012) | 0 |
| Pertussis | 1943–1945 | 1,300,000 | 3070 | 0 | 123 | 0 | 0.009% | 0.040 (0.033–0.047) | 0 |
| Polio | 1935–1954 | 72,500 | 2480 | 590 | 353 | 1149 | 2.1% | 0.142 (0.127–0.157) | 1.95 (1.83–2.06) |
| Hib | 1980–1984 | 2800 | 1440 | 1630 | 66 | 208 | 9.8% | 0.046 (0.035–0.057) | 0.13 (0.11–0.14) |
| Hepatitis B | 1988–1990 | 190,000 | 2610 | 460 | 106 | 3034 | 1.7% | 0.041 (0.033–0.048) | 6.60 (6.36–6.83) |
| Varicella | 1991–1994 | 4,000,000 | 3070 | 0 | 101 | 0 | 0.003% | 0.033 (0.026–0.039) | 0 |
| HPV | 2011–2014 | 2,800,000 | 1750 | 1320 | 198 | 5711 | 0.2% | 0.113 (0.097–0.129) | 4.33 (4.22–4.44) |
a “High risk” refers to individuals with specified factors linked to an elevated risk of permanent injury from the infection. “Normal risk” refers to individuals without those specific known factors and also refers to individuals with risk factors that were not identified or were excluded in our analysis. High risk factors, by infection, include: measles—insufficient vitamin A; rubella—woman who had not contracted rubella before pregnancy; polio—absence of tonsils and not resting after the onset of significant symptoms; Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib)—breastfed for <13 weeks; hepatitis B— infant of an infected mother, dwelling with an infected individual, sex with an infected partner, sex with multiple partners, men having sex with men, injection-drug use, and dwelling in a community with an unusually large group of infected individuals; and human papillomavirus (HPV)—smoking, women not screened every 3 years, and men with ≥6 oral sex partners in their lifetime.