Table 3.
Associations of COVID-19 cases and death rates and proximity to airports, trains stations and public transportation.
| Negative Binomial Regression |
Cox Regression |
|||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Number of COVID-19 Cases in County |
Number of COVID-19 Deaths in County |
Time to First COVID-19 Case in County |
Time to First COVID-19 Death in County |
|||||
| IRR | CI-95 | IRR | CI-95 | HR | CI-95 | HR | CI-95 | |
| Distance to airport: Ref: >50 miles | ||||||||
| 25> Miles to airport | 1.392*** | [1.185]-[1.636] | 1.545*** | [1.234]-[1.934] | 1.701*** | [1.491]-[1.941] | 1.337*** | [1.167]-[1.531] |
| 25-50 Miles to airport | 1.199*** | [1.077]-[1.336] | 1.192 | [0.980]-[1.451] | 1.302*** | [1.176]-[1.441] | 1.160*** | [1.069]-[1.260] |
| Num. of airport | 1.011 | [0.994]-[1.027] | 1.008 | [0.976]-[1.041] | 1.001 | [0.980]-[1.023] | 1.028*** | [1.012]-[1.045] |
| Volume of Airport Ref: No volume | ||||||||
| Medium volume | 1.284* | [1.058]-[1.557] | 1.309 | [0.980]-[1.748] | 1.445*** | [1.202]-[1.737] | 1.159 | [0.926]-[1.450] |
| High volume | 0.449** | [0.249]-[0.809] | 0.366** | [0.177]-[0.754] | 0.633 | [0.340]-[1.182] | 1.331 | [0.781]-[2.270] |
| Num. of train stations | 0.973 | [0.839]-[1.130] | 1.049 | [0.800]-[1.374] | 1.086 | [0.989]-[1.192] | 1.000 | [0.947]-[1.056] |
| Being in counties or nearby counties with major 13 Airports | 0.547* | [0.337]-[0.887] | 0.567 | [0.273]-[1.179] | 1.157 | [0.552]-[2.424] | 0.941 | [0.538]-[1.645] |
| Being an international airport | 1.199 | [0.969]-[1.484] | 1.214 | [0.939]-[1.568] | 1.677*** | [1.358]-[2.071] | 1.464** | [1.163]-[1.843] |
| Commute Ref: Work from home | ||||||||
| Drove alone | 1.030*** | [1.024]-[1.036] | 1.033*** | [1.025]-[1.041] | 1.011*** | [1.006]-[1.017] | 1.008*** | [1.004]-[1.012] |
| Carpooled | 1.005 | [0.986]-[1.025] | 0.982 | [0.952]-[1.012] | 0.984* | [0.970]-[0.999] | 0.987 | [0.971]-[1.003] |
| Public trans | 1.057** | [1.019]-[1.095] | 1.096*** | [1.048]-[1.147] | 1.089*** | [1.056]-[1.123] | 1.108*** | [1.085]-[1.131] |
| Walked | 0.900*** | [0.867]-[0.934] | 0.899*** | [0.860]-[0.939] | 0.964** | [0.940]-[0.989] | 0.935*** | [0.900]-[0.972] |
| Other | 1.107*** | [1.046]-[1.172] | 1.049 | [0.971]-[1.133] | 1.023 | [0.978]-[1.070] | 1.017 | [0.971]-[1.064] |
| Commute Traveling time | 0.999 | [0.980]-[1.019] | 1.017 | [0.991]-[1.045] | 1.024** | [1.009]-[1.039] | 1.013 | [0.999]-[1.027] |
| County Population | ||||||||
| Total county population (/1000) | 1.004*** | [1.002]-[1.005] | 1.004*** | [1.002]-[1.005] | 1.001*** | [1.001]-[1.002] | 1.001*** | [1.000]-[1.001] |
| Population density (/100) | 0.999 | [0.997]-[1.001] | 0.998 | [0.997]-[1.000] | 1.001*** | [1.001]-[1.002] | 1.001*** | [1.001]-[1.002] |
| N | 3132 | 3132 | 3084 | 3084 | ||||
*p < 0.05, **p < 0.01, ***p < 0.001.
Sources: JHU-COVID-19 Data (Updated August 21, 2020), Airport and Amtrak Station Data (2019), ACS Data (2018)
Notes:
1) All models have been controlled by race/ethnicity groups, population density, number of people at household, age categories and percent of poverty.
2) We have clustered errors by state to capture states policies and interventions.