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. 2020 Dec 4;102:35–46. doi: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2020.12.001

Negative Binomial Regression

Number of COVID-19
Cases in County
Number of COVID-19
Deaths in County
IRR CI-95 IRR CI-95
Distance to airport: Ref: >50 miles
25> Miles to airport 1.416** [1.108]-[1.810] 1.657*** [1.273]-[2.156]
25-50 Miles to airport 1.210 [0.994]-[1.472] 1.210 [0.985]-[1.486]
Num. of airport 0.991 [0.957]-[1.025] 0.981 [0.943]-[1.021]
Volume of Airport
Ref: No volume
Medium volume 1.779** [1.246]-[2.542] 1.456 [0.985]-[2.152]
High volume 0.562 [0.261]-[1.208] 0.358* [0.135]-[0.954]
Num. of train stations 0.985 [0.783]-[1.239] 1.050 [0.740]-[1.491]
Being in counties or nearby counties with major 13 Airports 0.477 [0.223]-[1.020] 0.462 [0.165]-[1.290]
Being an international airport 1.197 [0.852]-[1.683] 1.354 [0.902]-[2.032]
Commute
Ref: Work from home
Drove alone 1.024*** [1.016]-[1.033] 1.029*** [1.019]-[1.040]
Carpooled 1.020 [0.979]-[1.063] 0.986 [0.943]-[1.032]
Public trans 1.155*** [1.063]-[1.255] 1.144** [1.043]-[1.255]
Walked 0.917** [0.869]-[0.969] 0.952 [0.892]-[1.016]
Other 1.011 [0.925]-[1.105] 1.051 [0.948]-[1.165]
Commute Traveling time 0.994 [0.968]-[1.022] 1.005 [0.970]-[1.043]
County Population
Total county population (/1000) 1.003*** [1.002]-[1.005] 1.004*** [1.002]-[1.006]
Population density (/100) 0.998 [0.996]-[1.000] 0.997* [0.995]-[1.000]
N 2891 2891

*p < 0.05, **p < 0.01, ***p < 0.001.

Sources: JHU-COVID-19 Data (Updated May 5, 2020), Airport and Amtrak Station Data (2019), ACS Data (2018)

Notes:

1) All models have been controlled by race/ethnicity groups, population, population density, number of people at household, age categories and percent of poverty.

2) We have clustered errors by state to capture states policies and interventions.