Factor, parameter or model feature affected by the uncertainty | One sentence description of the cause of uncertainty affecting this factor, parameter or model feature (one row per cause of uncertainty) | One sentence description of how this source of uncertainty might lead to incorrect answer, or why that might be possible |
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Uncertainty sources about the modelling approach | Assumption that variability of initial concentration of Salmonella can be represented by the Normal distribution | Depending on the actual shape of the distribution, if not normal, an overall under‐ or overestimation of the reduction in probability of Salmonella detection after 24 h and/or 72 h could have occurred |
Assumption that Pert distribution (with minimum, most likely and maximum values as distribution parameters) represents uncertainty for sd, independently of the average of initial concentration of Salmonella | Depending on the actual shape of the distribution, if not Pert, an overall under‐ or overestimation of the reduction in probability of Salmonella detection after 24 h and/or 72 h could have occurred | |
Uncertainty about water activity. We assume aw input in the model is constant throughout chilling, which may not be realistic, as aw may be reduced during chilled storage Possible existence of microenvironments, where Salmonella cells reside, with lower aw than that reported, which cannot be assessed due to limitations in the spatial resolution of the aw measurement |
This could have caused higher reduction of Salmonella after 24 and 72 h of chilled storage, which may have led to an underestimation of the reduction in sensitivity of Salmonella detection This could have caused higher reduction of Salmonella after 24 and 72 h of chilled storage, which may have led to an underestimation of the reduction in sensitivity of Salmonella detection. Nonetheless, it is expected to have minor contribution to the overall uncertainty and impact on the outcome, because even though the extent of this phenomenon is unknown, it may be relatively limited, since it accounts for a limited portion of the sampled area |
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Model inputs were based on information from the literature, which sometimes was related to other Enterobacteriaceae, assuming those were representative also for Salmonella | An assumption was made that some data on sponging efficacy for other Enterobacteriaceae may be used to approximate the relevant model input for Salmonella | An overall under‐ or overestimation of the reduction in probability of Salmonella detection after 24 h and/or 72 h could have occurred |
Uncertainty about model structure | The impact of this source of uncertainty on the outcome cannot be predicted | |
Unquantified dependencies between the uncertainties | The impact of this source of uncertainty on the outcome cannot be predicted |