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. 2020 Dec 4;18(12):e06307. doi: 10.2903/j.efsa.2020.6307
Attendance and role Expert Role
Federica Barrucci Facilitator
Michaela Hempen Secretary
BLAGOJEVIC Bojan Expert
SKANDAMIS PANAGIOTIS Expert
PAULSEN Peter Expert
HILBERT Friederike Expert
Purpose of elicitation The purpose of the elicitation is to agree on distributions of input parameters for the Salmonella stochastic model, used to assess the effectiveness of Post‐mortem inspection PMI (in terms of its sensitivity in detecting the diseases/conditions) when carried up to 72 h after slaughter or arrival in the game‐handling establishment, in comparison to when it is carried out immediately after slaughter or arrival in the game‐handling establishment
This record Participants are aware that this elicitation will be conducted using the Sheffield Elicitation Framework, and that this document, including attachments, will form a record of the session
Orientation and training

The experts received a document (Elicitation record) explaining the purpose of the elicitation and gave a brief explanation of the task that experts would be asked to perform

It was proposed to use the same the model as for 24 h storage. Only few variables need to be updated when considering 72 h of chilling:

Input variable Potentially change/does not change under 72 h chilling condition
Mean of initial distribution of Salmonella No change
Standard deviation of the initial distribution of Salmonella No change
LoD/SLm Min No change
Aw Change
pH Fixed value
T Fixed value
Physiology Change
Sponge efficacy Change
Outcompetition Change
Therefore, it was proposed to perform elicitation of uncertainty distribution for the following parameters:
  • Physiology at 72 h
  • Sponge efficacy at 72 h
  • Out‐competition at 72 h
  • Aw at 72 h
72 h chilling is obtained extending the cold storage beyond 24 h, therefore uncertainty distributions of the parameters to update under condition of 72 h chilling are correlated to its respective distribution elicited under 24 h of cold storage condition

Starting from values elicited under 24 h cold storage condition, experts were asked to update their estimates considering the 72 h of cold storage condition. Due to time constraints, experts were asked to provide their estimate via email. This short cut was possible due to the fact that these parameters were discussed in detail during elicitation under 24 h cold storage condition

Evidence The experts received a document (Elicitation record) presenting definition of parameters, instruction and values elicited under 24 h cold storage condition
Method Quartile/min‐max‐most probable value