Attendance and role | Expert | Role |
Federica Barrucci | Facilitator | |
Michaela Hempen | Secretary | |
BLAGOJEVIC Bojan | Expert | |
SKANDAMIS PANAGIOTIS | Expert | |
PAULSEN Peter | Expert | |
HILBERT Friederike | Expert | |
Purpose of elicitation | The purpose of the elicitation is to agree on distributions of input parameters for the Salmonella stochastic model, used to assess the effectiveness of Post‐mortem inspection PMI (in terms of its sensitivity in detecting the diseases/conditions) when carried up to 72 h after slaughter or arrival in the game‐handling establishment, in comparison to when it is carried out immediately after slaughter or arrival in the game‐handling establishment | |
This record | Participants are aware that this elicitation will be conducted using the Sheffield Elicitation Framework, and that this document, including attachments, will form a record of the session | |
Orientation and training |
The experts received a document (Elicitation record) explaining the purpose of the elicitation and gave a brief explanation of the task that experts would be asked to perform It was proposed to use the same the model as for 24 h storage. Only few variables need to be updated when considering 72 h of chilling: |
|
Input variable | Potentially change/does not change under 72 h chilling condition | |
Mean of initial distribution of Salmonella | No change | |
Standard deviation of the initial distribution of Salmonella | No change | |
LoD/SLm Min | No change | |
Aw | Change | |
pH | Fixed value | |
T | Fixed value | |
Physiology | Change | |
Sponge efficacy | Change | |
Outcompetition | Change | |
Therefore, it was proposed to perform elicitation of uncertainty distribution for the following parameters:
Starting from values elicited under 24 h cold storage condition, experts were asked to update their estimates considering the 72 h of cold storage condition. Due to time constraints, experts were asked to provide their estimate via email. This short cut was possible due to the fact that these parameters were discussed in detail during elicitation under 24 h cold storage condition | ||
Evidence | The experts received a document (Elicitation record) presenting definition of parameters, instruction and values elicited under 24 h cold storage condition | |
Method | Quartile/min‐max‐most probable value |