Table 1.

Scenarios for illustrating the main options regarding expanding fiscal space for a sustainable free healthcare policy

		2015		2016 A		2016 B		2016 C		2017 A		2017 B with 5% GDP growth
		LCU	% GDP	LCU	% GDP	LCU	% GDP	LCU	% GDP	LCU	% GDP	LCU	% GDP
1 = 2 + 3	Total revenue and grants	20,000	16.7	20,000	16.7	22,000	18.3	22,000	18.3	22,000	18.3	22,990	18.3
2	Total revenue	18,000	15.0	18,000	15.0	19,800	16.5	19,800	16.5	19,800	16.5	20,790	16.5
3	Grants	2000	1.7	2000	1.7	2200	1.8	2200	1.8	2200	1.8	2200	1,7
4 = 5 + 9	Expenditure and net lending	25,000	20.8	26,000	21.7	26,000	21.7	25,000	20.8	25,300	21.1	25,600	21.3
5 = 6 + 7+ 8	Current expenditure	25,000	20.8	26,000	21.7	26,000	21.7	25,000	20.8	25,300	21.1	25,600	21.3
6	Healthcare	3000	2.5	4000	3.3	4000	3.3	4000	3.3	4000	3.3	4150	3,3
7	Other sectors	22,000	18.3	22,000	18.3	22,000	18.3	21,000	17.5	21,000	17.5	21,150	17.6
8	Interest payments	0		0		0		0		300		300
9	Investment expenditure (all sectors)	0		0		0		0		0		0
10 = 1 − 4	Overall balance (cash basis)	− 5000	− 4.2	− 6000	− 5.0	− 4000	− 3.3	− 3000	− 2.5	− 3300	− 2.8	− 2610	− 2.2
11 = 12 + 15	Financing	5000		5000		4000		3000		2700		2610
12 = 13 + 14	Domestic (net)	2000		2000		1000		1000		900		810
13	Drawings	2000		2000		1000		1000		1000		910
14	Amortization	0		0						− 100		− 100
15 = 16 + 17	External (net)	3000		3000		3000		2000		1800		1800
16	Drawings	3000		3000		3000		2000		2000		2000
17	Amortization	0		0		0		0		− 200		− 200
18 = 11 − 10	Financing gap	0		− 1000		0		0		− 600		0
19	GDP		120,000		120,000		120,000		120,000		120,000		126,000
20	GDP growth (%)			0		0		0		0		5
21	Public health expenditure % total public expenditure	12.0		15.4		15.4		16.0		15.8		16.2
22	Public health expenditure % GDP	2.5		3.3		3.3		3.3		3.3		3.3

GDP gross domestic product, LCU local currency unit