Table 2.
Proportion of Deaths, Overall and by Time of SARS-CoV-2 Infection Diagnosis After the First Case (March 3, 2020), and Hazard Ratios Predicting the Risk of Death of Patients Diagnosed in April vs March 2020
| Total Sample | March 2020a | April 1–May 3, 2020b | P c | April vs March HR (95% CI) | P d | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10.3 | 9.5 | 12.1 | .042 | 0.93* (0.71–1.21) | .6 |
| 0.93** (0.71–1.21) | .6 | |||||
| Age-Class in Years, % | ||||||
| <18 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -- | -- | -- |
| 18–39.9 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.7 | .2 | -- | -- |
| 40–49.9 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.0 | .4 | -- | -- |
| 50–59.9 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | .2 | 0.22 (0.02–2.05) | .2 |
| 60–69.9 | 6.7 | 7.3 | 4.6 | .4 | 0.66 (0.22–1.99) | .5 |
| 70–79.9 | 18.8 | 19.1 | 18.3 | .9 | 0.92 (0.52–1.63) | .8 |
| ≥80 | 31.6 | 32.6 | 30.6 | .6 | 0.94 (0.67–1.30) | .7 |
| Gender, % | ||||||
| Females | 9.3 | 9.0 | 9.7 | .7 | 0.65 (0.44–0.95) | .027 |
| Males | 11.5 | 9.9 | 15.8 | .005 | 1.12 (0.77–1.61) | .6 |
| Hypertension, % | ||||||
| No | 5.2 | 4.4 | 6.7 | .040 | 0.92 (0.58–1.45) | .7 |
| Yes | 20.9 | 19.6 | 23.5 | .2 | 0.85 (0.61–1.19) | .3 |
| Diabetes, % | ||||||
| No | 8.3 | 7.4 | 10.7 | .005 | 1.03 (0.75–1.42) | .8 |
| Yes | 24.2 | 27.7 | 19.3 | .08 | 0.57 (0.34–0.94) | .028 |
| Major Cardiovascular Diseases, % | ||||||
| No | 7.1 | 6.7 | 7.9 | .3 | 0.81 (0.57–1.16) | .2 |
| Yes | 27.9 | 26.2 | 30.5 | .4 | 0.98 (0.65–1.48) | .9 |
| COPD, % | ||||||
| No | 9.3 | 8.5 | 11.1 | .04 | 0.87 (0.65–1.16) | .3 |
| Yes | 28.9 | 27.0 | 33.3 | .5 | 0.78 (0.37–1.63) | .5 |
| Cancer, % | ||||||
| No | 9.6 | 8.7 | 11.3 | .050 | 0.84 (0.63–1.12) | .2 |
| Yes | 20.2 | 18.1 | 26.7 | .2 | 0.89 (0.43–1.86) | .8 |
| Renal diseases, % | ||||||
| No | 9.3 | 8.6 | 10.9 | .07 | 0.93 (0.70–1.24) | .6 |
| Yes | 28.6 | 29.6 | 27.4 | .8 | 0.56 (0.27–1.15) | .11 |
| Presence of comorbidities, %e | ||||||
| No | 3.2 | 2.7 | 4.4 | .078 | 1.23 (0.67–2.28) | .5 |
| Yes | 19.7 | 18.4 | 22.3 | .14 | 0.93 (0.70–1.24) | .3 |
Abbreviations: CI, confidence interval; COPD, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; SARS-CoV-2, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2.
The hazard ratios predicting the risk of death in April vs March was computed twice, adopting 2 separate models: in the first (*), a Cox proportional hazard analysis was performed; in the second (**), a frailty term was incorporated to the Cox model, to include cluster-specific random effects potentially arising from the presence of patients diagnosed in 2 different provinces.
aFrom March 3 to March 31, 2020.
bFrom April 1 to May 3, 2020.
cχ 2 test for categorical variables.
dCox proportional hazard model, adjusted for age, gender, hypertension, diabetes, major cardiovascular diseases, COPD, cancer, and renal disease. Some models could not be fit due to the scarce number of deaths.
eIncluding patients with ≥1 chronic condition among hypertension, diabetes, major cardiovascular diseases, COPD, cancer, or renal diseases.