Table 1.
Actual values, 10-days-ahead forecasts, errors, expected increase and uncertainty for the global confirmed cases.
| Round | Date | Actual (1000s) |
Forecast (1000s) |
Error (1000s) |
APE (%) |
APE on change (%) |
Expected increase (%) | Uncertainty (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2020-02-10 | 42.8 | 207.4 | −164.6 | 384.8 | 501.2 | 1987 | 29 |
| 2 | 2020-02-20 | 76.2 | 82.0 | −5.8 | 7.6 | 17.4 | 92 | 177 |
| 3 | 2020-03-01 | 88.4 | 82.9 | 5.5 | 6.2 | 45.1 | 9 | 115 |
| 4 | 2020-03-11 | 126.9 | 111.7 | 15.2 | 12.0 | 39.4 | 26 | 98 |
| 5 | 2020-03-21 | 304.4 | 209.4 | 95.0 | 31.2 | 53.5 | 65 | 95 |
| 6 | 2020-03-31 | 857.5 | 900.5 | −43.1 | 5.0 | 7.8 | 196 | 89 |
| 7 | 2020-04-10 | 1691.7 | 2173.2 | −481.5 | 28.5 | 57.7 | 153 | 58 |
| 8 | 2020-04-20 | 2472.3 | 3032.4 | −560.1 | 22.7 | 71.8 | 79 | 69 |
| 9 | 2020-04-30 | 3256.8 | 3343.9 | −87.0 | 2.7 | 11.1 | 35 | 78 |
| 10 | 2020-05-10 | 4101.7 | 4209.8 | −108.1 | 2.6 | 12.8 | 29 | 62 |
| 11 | 2020-05-20 | 4996.5 | 5067.9 | −71.4 | 1.4 | 8.0 | 24 | 58 |
| 12 | 2020-05-30 | 6059.0 | 6068.4 | −9.4 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 21 | 45 |