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. 2020 Dec 4;10:21306. doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-77420-4

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© The Author(s) 2020

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Discrete transmission model for COVID-19. (a) The different compartments comprise susceptible (S), exposed (E), asymptomatic (A), symptomatic before (B) and in self-isolation (C), hospitalized in MCU (H) and ICU (Q), removed (R) and deceased (D) individuals. Individuals are classified into sub-compartments E1, E2, etc. according to the number of days they have spent in a given comportment. (b) age-dependent probability of hospitalization of symptomatic individuals, (c) probability of transfer from MCU to ICU, (d) fatality risk in ICU, (e) daily fatality ratio in ICU exemplarily shown for age-groups 80 + , 70–74 and 60–64.