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. 2020 Dec 4;10:21256. doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-77628-4

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© The Author(s) 2020

Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Effect of lifting closures and relaxing social distancing after 100 days. From left to right, the panels represent the infected, the recovered and the fatalities compartments. Each age group is represented in one color: Children (blue), Young adults (pink), Adults (red) and Elderly (black). The dashed curves illustrate the prediction with closures and social distancing in place. The thin solid curves illustrate the prediction with both closures and social distance restrictions lifted. The thick solid curves represent a scenario in which closures are lifted, but social distancing is maintained. In the top panels, $β$ is reduced by 20% with social distancing; in the bottom panels, it is reduced by 40%.