Fig. 6.

Example of small secondary oscillations in model behaviour using the model fit against daily case data (yellow bars) for a Australia and b South Korea up to 9 June (dashed line). The posterior predictive simulations are continues up to 24 June to demonstrate the uncertainty in potential case increases after relaxation of restrictions. Actual daily case numbers for the period 10–24 June (red bars) also demonstrate increases within the credible intervals (dark blue 50% CrI; light blue 95% CrI)