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. 2020 Dec 7;20:1869. doi: 10.1186/s12889-020-09764-5

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© The Author(s) 2020

Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data.

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Fig. 1 — Markov transition model. Note: Circles represent Markov health states, and arrows indicate the transitions among these health states. Death is an absorbing state from which no future transitions are possible, and Well is a disease-free state from which the Markov process starts. CHD1 fatal coronary heart disease, CHD2 non-fatal coronary heart disease, Stroke1 fatal stroke, Stroke2 non-fatal stroke, T2D type 2 diabetes