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. 2020 Dec 8;83(1):1. doi: 10.1007/s11538-020-00834-8

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© The Author(s) 2020

Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Fig. 1 — The SEIR model. The population is divided into four compartments that represent susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered individuals. The contact parameter $β$ is critical for disease transmission, and 1/a and 1/g are the average durations of exposed and infectious periods, respectively. Unlike in the standard model, the birth and death processes are neglected in short-term simulations discussed throughout the current study