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. 2020 Dec 8;83(1):1. doi: 10.1007/s11538-020-00834-8

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© The Author(s) 2020

Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Fig. 5 — (Color figure online) Simulations of the stochastic SEIR model for two example regions. Simulations I indicate an ensemble of 100 runs of the model with initial conditions from the first epidemic day with number of cases greater than or equal to 30 (gray: ensemble of trajectories; blue: observations). Simulations II start at March 26, using an ensemble size of 100 after data assimilation (gray: ensemble of trajectories; red: observations). a Cumulative cases of infected individuals over time for LK Köln. b Daily reported new cases for Köln. c Cumulative cases for LK Münster. d Daily new cases for Münster. Date refers to report of case at RKI