Fig. 6.

(Color figure online) Model predictions for COVID-19 after data assimilation in comparison to data (black lines). In scenario I (green area), an assimilated ensemble of internal model states starts the forecast with contact parameter ${\beta }_{\mathrm{post}}$ (continuation of social distancing interventions). In scenario II (red area), the equivalent forecast is generated with contact parameter ${\beta }_{\mathrm{pre}}$ (termination of interventions). a Predictions for cumulative case numbers in Heinsberg. b Predictions of daily new cases in Heinsberg. c Predictions of cumulative cases for Warendorf. d Predictions of daily new cases for Warendorf. Date refers to report of case at RKI