Fig. 6.

Variations in population IFR across geographical locations. Note: This figure depicts the extent to which the metaregression results account for variations in population IFR across geographical locations. The blue circles denote seroprevalence studies of representative samples, and the green diamonds denote countries with comprehensive tracing programs. For each observation, its position on the horizontal axis denotes its predicted IFR obtained by aggregating across the age-specific predictions of the metaregression, and its position on the vertical axis denotes the actual population IFR for that location. The dashed segments denote the estimated line obtained by fitting a regression to these 16 observations. The R² of this regression is 0.87, indicating that nearly 90% of the variation in population IFR can be explained by variations in age composition and age-specific prevalence of COVID-19