Table 1. Estimation of basic reproduction number by exponential growth and maximum likelihood methods during the COVID-19 epidemic in Iran from 19th February to 11th March 2020 and Tehran from 21st February to 11th March 2020.
| Location | Method | Period of estimation | 𝑅 0 (95% CI)* | 𝑅 0 (95% CI)** |
|
Iran (whole country) |
Exponential growth | 19 Feb- 29 Feb | 4.70 (4.23-5.23) | 4.73 (4.30-5.21) |
| 19 Feb-11 Mar | 1.91 (1.88-1.94) | 1.87 (1.85-1.90) | ||
| Maximum Likelihood | 19 Feb- 29 Feb | 3.90 (3.47-4.36) | 3.93 (3.54-4.35) | |
| 19 Feb-11 Mar | 1.63 (1.59-1.68) | 1.61 (1.56-1.65) | ||
| Bayesian time-dependent | 19 Feb- 29 Feb | 3.23 (2.94- 3.51) | 2.97 (2.71-3.23) | |
| 19 Feb-11 Mar | 1.50 (1.42- 1.59) | 1.45 (1.37-1.54) | ||
| Tehran | Exponential growth | 21 Feb-29 Feb | 5.14 (4.15-6.37) | 5.47 (4.65-6.46) |
| 21 Feb-11 Mar | 1.67 (1.62-1.71) | 1.68 (1.64-1.73) | ||
| Maximum Likelihood | 21 Feb-29 Feb | 4.20 (3.38-5.14) | 4.51 (3.79-5.32) | |
| 21 Feb-11 Mar | 1.55 (1.46-1.63) | 1.51 (1.43-1.59) | ||
| Bayesian time-dependent | 21 Feb-29 Feb | 3.94 (3.45-4.40) | 3.45 (3.04-3.85) | |
| 21 Feb-11 Mar |
1.36-1.70) |
1.42 (1.25-1.59) |
* 𝑅0 was estimated using daily reported confirmed cases by the MOH
** 𝑅0 was estimated using moving average smoothing of the above mentioned data