Table 4.
Mean ± standard deviation (SD) and the associated 90% confidence interval (CI, 5 to 95%), minimum and maximum annual gross margin and net profit in farmsa with different prevalence of pleurisy and lung scars on slaughter pigs. Results were obtained during the risk analysis by performing stochastic simulation analysis by Monte Carlo sampling with 10,000 iterations (‘farms’) using the Microsoft Excel add-in @Risk [44]
| Variable | € per year | € per pig | € per kg | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LPLSCb | LPHSCc | HPd | LPLSC | LPHSC | LP | LPLSC | LPHSC | HP | |
| Gross margin, € | |||||||||
| Mean | 978,020 | 883,579 | 846,131 | 51.1 | 47.2 | 45.2 | 0.61 | 0.57 | 0.54 |
| SD | 73,587 | 89,923 | 52,997 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| 5% CI | 861,044 | 740,681 | 761,039 | 48.1 | 43.8 | 42.4 | 0.58 | 0.53 | 0.51 |
| 95% CI | 1,101,716 | 1,035,199 | 935,183 | 54.1 | 50.4 | 48.1 | 0.65 | 0.61 | 0.57 |
| Minimum | 730,977 | 571,026 | 657,281 | 43.7 | 38.0 | 38.2 | 0.53 | 0.46 | 0.46 |
| Maximum | 1,267,410 | 1,191,485 | 1,069,961 | 58.5 | 55.3 | 52.0 | 0.70 | 0.67 | 0.62 |
| Net profit, € | |||||||||
| Mean | 312,902 | 218,461 | 181,014 | 16.2 | 11.4 | 9.6 | 0.20 | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| SD | 73,587 | 89,923 | 52,997 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.03 |
| 90% CI | 195,926-436,598 | 75,563-370,082 | 95,921-270,066 | 10.1–21.2 | 4.5–17.9 | 5.4–13.8 | 0.13–0.26 | 0.05–0.21 | 0.06–0.16 |
| Minimum | 65,860 | −94,091 | − 7836 | 4.0 | −6.3 | −0.5 | 0.05 | −0.08 | −0.01 |
| Maximum | 602,293 | 526,367 | 404,843 | 27.1 | 24.4 | 19.6 | 0.33 | 0.29 | 0.23 |
a728 sow farrow-to-finish farms with weekly farrowing batches were simulated to represent three different scenarios. A total of 10,000 iterations (i.e. farms) were simulated for each scenario. At each iteration, all stochastic input variables (i.e. biological inputs, feedstuff and pork prices) varied simultaneously by randomly sampling a new set of values for each variable from their corresponding distributions. Additionally, gross margins and net profit were calculated for each iteration
bScenario 1: a farrow-to-finish farm with prevalence of pleurisy < 25% and prevalence of lung scars < 8% with a wean-to-finish average daily gain (ADG) of 760 g and reaching target slaughter weight at 24 weeks of age
cScenario 2: a farrow-to-finish farm with prevalence of pleurisy < 25% and prevalence of lung scars ≥8% (LPHSC) with an ADG of 725 g and reaching target slaughter weight at 25 weeks of age
dScenario 3: a farrow-to-finish farm with prevalence of pleurisy ≥25% (HP) with and ADG of 671 g and reaching target slaughter weight at 26 weeks of age